Gold price forecast for today: What to expect for gold on March 25, 2026 and in the short term?

Today’s Gold Price Prediction

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate based on inflation expectations and anticipated interest rate cuts, according to Manesh Sharma, AVP at Anand Rati Shares & Stock Brokers. Recently, gold experienced its most significant weekly decline in years, dropping to a four-month low of approximately $4,099 per ounce.

Reasons for Recent Decline

Increasing oil prices have raised inflation concerns and heightened expectations for interest rate hikes by the central bank.

Current US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield at 4.37%, up from 3.93% earlier this month.

The US dollar continues to trade robustly above $99, which limits commodity prices.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned earlier in March that if oil prices keep rising by 10% for a year, global inflation could increase by 40 basis points. Although global central banks bought a net of 5 tonnes of gold in January, purchases are projected to slow this year, averaging 27 tonnes monthly by 2025. The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to forced selling, as investors liquidate their gold holdings to offset losses in other investment areas, rather than a decline in gold’s long-term value.

A prolonged conflict might lead central banks in emerging economies to allocate fewer resources for gold purchases, as funds could be redirected toward liquidity measures or additional oil purchases to stimulate economic growth.

Geopolitical Developments

Iran has denied engaging in talks with the US to resolve the conflict, countering President Trump’s claim that an agreement is near.

Mohsen Rezaei, a military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that the conflict would persist until Iran receives complete reparations.

Iran is facing increased pressure on its energy infrastructure, which, along with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing oil prices higher.

Outlook for Gold Prices

Weekly View: Spot Gold (Current Market Price 4,410/oz) – Experiencing instability this week, with a downside bias expected for the next 1-2 weeks.

Spot Silver (Current Market Price $70.10/Oz): Anticipated rebound towards $73-74/Oz, presenting selling opportunities for 1-2 weeks.

Gold and silver have turned away from the uptrend observed at the year’s start. Spot gold, having rebounded from lows seen yesterday, has struggled under $4,100, which seems unsustainable. The resistance range is noted around $4,520 to $4,570 per ounce. If oil prices continue rising due to ongoing geopolitical issues, a decline of 10-15% in spot prices to between $3,800 and $3,750 per ounce over the next 1-2 weeks cannot be dismissed. Silver support levels are around $56-58/oz, with resistance at $73-74/oz.

Gold has been on a downward trend since the conflict escalated on February 28, as rising energy costs and geopolitical risks are increasingly countered by climbing real yields and a strong dollar. Consequently, the price direction of gold will hinge on how geopolitical events influence inflation, monetary policy expectations, and real interest rates.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and opinions regarding the stock market, other asset classes, or personal financial management are solely the expert’s and do not reflect the views of any affiliated organization.)