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Final Defense for Bitcoin Uncovered: Is a $40,000 BTC Price Still Possible?

Historical Trends Since 2017 Indicate Bitcoin Price Drop to $35,000

Bitcoin Price Analysis and Critical Levels

Bitcoin is trading at about $66,400, which is almost 48% lower than its record high of $126,080 reached in October 2025. Current technical analysis suggests that a correction might be forthcoming.

According to crypto analyst Leshka.eth, Bitcoin is nearing a crucial price point that will decide the fate of this cycle—whether it continues or resets entirely. That pivotal line is at $60,000, and how it performs could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory for the remainder of the year.

$60,000 as a Key Level

Leshka.eth emphasizes that the $60,000 mark is vital in today’s market context. This price point represents what analysts call the final line of defense, determining if a more significant correction could lead to lower values.

Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the low $70,000s, and it has dropped about 3.3% over the last 24 hours. Although it remains comfortably above $60,000 for now, the distance is closing, raising concerns about potential downside risks.

A weekly candlestick chart from an analyst highlights how previous breakdowns with similar patterns have resulted in price drops. However, Bitcoin hasn’t fallen below $60,000 this cycle and registered a low near $63,000 during the February crash.

This makes the $60,000 threshold particularly significant; it has acted as a solid support level for the past two months, maintaining a high price range between $63,000 and $76,000. If it fails to hold, it signifies that buyers may have lost grip on this essential structural support that has propped up Bitcoin prices throughout the current cycle.

Long-Term Trend Lines

To understand the broader picture, it helps to look at long-term trend lines across several Bitcoin cycles. These lines, drawn on a weekly candlestick chart from 2018 leading up to what’s projected in 2028, connect the lowest points achieved during prolonged bearish trends.

Back in late 2018, Bitcoin saw a drastic drop, and by 2020 it rebounded to the trend line before entering an extended accumulation phase near its lows. Eventually, it surged to the peak of the 2021 cycle. A similar pattern occurred during the bear market of 2022, where Bitcoin fell from its peak, returned to the macro trend line in 2023, and then began a new cycle, eventually reaching $126,080 in October 2025.

Currently, this trend line hovers near the $40,000 level. Analysts believe that if Bitcoin maintains the $60,000 mark, the cycle will persist. Conversely, if it falls below that, $40,000 could serve as the new bottom, prompting another accumulation phase, as Leshka.eth noted.

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