On Wednesday, over 52 million individuals across the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic were facing potential severe weather. This marks the beginning of a multi-day storm system expected to progress into the weekend, raising concerns about flash flooding.
April ushers in a historically active severe weather season in the central U.S., which seems to align with the current atmospheric patterns.
The jet stream is dipping down, serving as a conveyor belt for storms originating from the west.
Meanwhile, warmer temperatures prevailing in the eastern two-thirds of the United States have intensified the likelihood of severe weather, with storms already forming in regions like the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic.
On Tuesday, parts of Iowa and Illinois experienced quarter-sized hail, while wind gusts reached up to 70 mph in areas of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and western New York, according to the National Weather Service.
Spring severe weather season kicks off in the central U.S.
A cold front is anticipated to traverse the Plains, causing severe storms along the dry line, which is the boundary stretching between dry air from the west and warm moist air from the Gulf. This is forecasted to develop in regions like the Red River Valley of southern and central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northern Texas.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has rated the severe thunderstorm risk at Level 3 out of 5. Storms may develop between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM CT.
The FOX Prediction Center predicts that hail could reach egg-sized proportions. Late Wednesday, a line of storms is expected, with risks shifting to damaging winds and potentially strong tornadoes (EF-2+).
A broader Level 2 threat area extends from northern Missouri, southeast through the Southern Plains to regions like San Angelo, Texas, down to the U.S.-Mexico border, while Dallas is currently under a level 1 threat.
Alongside the severe weather risks, the FOX Prediction Center noted that elevated moisture levels in the atmosphere, driven by rising temperatures, could lead to flash flooding over several days.
“These storms will have plenty of fuel to produce heavy rain,” the forecast center indicated.
Areas like eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northern Oklahoma are expected to be at the highest risk for flash flooding on Wednesday.
The system is likely to reach the Midwest by Thursday, bringing more thunderstorms to cities like Chicago.
Looking ahead, another severe weather system is poised to enter the Plains and Midwest by Friday. A Level 3 threat will affect areas of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and northern Oklahoma, presenting risks of damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes.
Overall, parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley could see more than six inches of rain by the week’s end, impacting cities such as Little Rock and St. Louis.
This changing weather pattern signals the onset of the spring severe weather season in the Southern Plains, as April typically reports the second-highest tornado counts after May.
Warmer temperatures amplify severe weather across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic
In regions like the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storms continue evolving, following a warm front that appears to be creating a repeating storm trajectory for the coming days. Key concerns include damage from large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.
As early as Wednesday morning, severe storms were still active in Illinois, Indiana, and the Ohio Valley.
Rainy, thunderstorm conditions are expected to persist throughout Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
The storm system is likely to gain strength along a narrow corridor from West Virginia to Northern Virginia and into parts of Maryland, according to the FOX Prediction Center.
Meanwhile, some off-and-on rain could be anticipated in parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend.
