Residents are still leaving San Francisco, though recent data suggests that many haven’t gone far.
Between 2022 and 2023, the city saw more people moving out than moving in, as indicated by IRS tax return data. This trend mirrors a larger pattern affecting all nine counties in the Bay Area.
In more concrete terms, approximately 6,500 more residents departed from San Francisco for other parts of the United States compared to those who arrived. According to new information from the IRS, this translates to about a 1% net decline in domestic migration.
While this ongoing outflow remains concerning, it does show a bit of improvement compared to the pre-pandemic years, when cities experienced a more dramatic loss of residents.
Some analysts believe this recent slowdown in departures could be linked to a return-to-office initiative that is gradually bringing more workers back to the region.
However, looking at the overall situation, cities have not completely bounced back. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the San Francisco metropolitan area is still roughly 2.6% smaller than it was at the start of 2020.
Interestingly, for many who are leaving, the new destination is relatively close. San Mateo County, in particular, became a popular spot, attracting over 23,000 former San Francisco residents from 2020 to 2023. This figure accounts for about 14% of all relocations, as reported by the Chronicle.
Other counties like Alameda and Contra Costa also made the list of preferred new homes, indicating that people frequently choose to move within a short distance rather than completely out of the Bay Area.
Of course, some have opted for more distant moves. New York County, especially Manhattan, emerged as a top destination, drawing in over 5,000 former San Franciscans during the same time frame.
In total, around 170,000 individuals left San Francisco between 2020 and 2023, with a significant majority relocating within California itself. Counties like Los Angeles and San Diego also ranked high as popular destinations.
IRS data, which relies on address changes noted in tax returns, provides detailed insights into how American migration is evolving, although it doesn’t account for every resident’s move.
Across the Bay Area, each county saw a net loss in domestic immigration during this latest period, reinforcing the broader shifts in population trends observed in the early 2020s.
Even with a decline in the number of those leaving, it appears that the Bay Area’s high living costs continue to drive many residents to seek more affordable options—even if those options are just a short drive away.
