As the final week of Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary approaches, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is feeling the pressure to secure re-election. He has voiced strong criticism of his Republican counterparts and is at risk of not making it to the runoff in this increasingly competitive three-way race.
With just five weeks left before the May 16 vote, Cassidy is caught between his supporters: Congresswoman Julia Letlow and former Congressman John Fleming, who also served as Louisiana Treasurer and is a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus.
Cassidy has expressed frustration with the NRSC and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, claiming they haven’t backed him adequately in his re-election efforts. Despite Thune raising over $650,000 for him at a January event and the NRSC scaling back on video ads that feature Cassidy, he still believes the committee has not invested enough in him during the primary.
According to reports, NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper indicated that Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump during the latter’s second impeachment trial was unwise, citing his “outbursts” in response.
This impeachment vote is a key point in Cassidy’s campaign narrative. In February 2021, Cassidy voted to convict Trump, stating later, “I voted guilty because President Trump is guilty.” He has since suggested in various interviews that Trump could struggle to win future elections, has stated he won’t support him in 2024, and even proposed that Trump consider dropping out, hinting at a possible third-party candidacy.
These comments have positioned Cassidy vulnerably in the Republican primary as Louisiana prepares to switch to a closed primary system in 2024. This change means Cassidy can no longer count on support from independents and Democrats, and only Republican voters will determine the outcome.
Some within the Louisiana Republican scene view Cassidy as lacking a solid political base. Pollster John Couvillon shared, “There’s a distrust of Sen. Cassidy among Republican voters. Additionally, while he has a fairly Republican voting record, he isn’t particularly liked by Democrats either, making him an unpopular figure without a clear support base.”
It’s thought unlikely that any candidate will secure over 50% in the May 16 primary, suggesting a runoff in June is probable. Republican insiders have indicated that all three candidates have a reasonable chance to advance, but many predict either Letlow or Fleming defeating Cassidy in a potential runoff.
Despite the challenges, Cassidy has significantly outpaced Letlow and her supporters financially. Reports indicate that Cassidy and his allies entered the year with about $26 million at their disposal. Cassidy’s campaign and the Louisiana Freedom Fund have spent over $14 million on ads that mainly target Letlow, focusing on her past comments regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion, as well as her investments in defense contractor stocks during the Iraq War.
He also encountered challenges over his record on legislation tied to diversity and equity programs. The criticism revolves around his backing of four significant bills: the National Defense Authorization Act of 2021, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Safe Communities Act.
