Prospects from Smaller Schools Are Trending in NFL Drafts
Whether you’re a fan of the NIL system or the transfer portal, there’s plenty of room for differing views. But if you think Tommy Tuberville’s ideas are the only valid ones out there, maybe reconsider. One thing seems clear: college football is shifting, and smaller schools aren’t seeing as many players in draft lineups anymore. In fact, a recent report from ESPN highlighted that the number of prospects transferring from smaller schools to bigger ones jumped from 5.4% in 2018 to an eye-popping 38.2% in 2025. Yeah, players are chasing better paychecks, but they also want to compete against higher talent to impress NFL scouts.
Take for instance Ashton Giunty, a running back for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Gray Zabel, a left guard for Seattle. They are the only first-round picks from non-major conferences for the 2025 draft. It’s unlikely that this will change much in 2026, with Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren as a probable first-round selection. After that? The outlook for players from smaller schools appears quite bleak, although perhaps San Diego State’s Chris Johnson could make a late entry into the first round.
Yet, despite these trends, there are still plenty of standout players from smaller schools who have the potential to be NFL starters. It’s not uncommon to wonder, could one of them turn out to be a sensation like Joe Flacco or Shannon Sharpe? It’s possible—and here are some of my top picks for the draft this year.
Cole Payton, QB, North Dakota State
Cole Payton was a two-star recruit from Westside High in Omaha, Nebraska, with North Dakota State as his best option. He didn’t have offers from bigger programs. After spending time behind quarterbacks Trey Lance and Cam Miller, he finally had a shot in 2025 to show his skills beyond just being a running quarterback.
In that season, Payton completed 161 of his 226 passes, achieving a completion rate of 71.2% for over 2,700 yards. That’s 12 yards per pass, 16 touchdowns, and just four interceptions—a solid set of stats. He particularly excelled under pressure, completing over half of his attempts when blitzed, and excitingly, he managed a passer rating of 150.6. Critics have suggested he struggles with deep throws, but based on his performance, I wouldn’t agree.
The main concern about Payton, aside from his competitive level, might be his speed and consistency. Having only one year as a starter could be a red flag for certain teams. But the quarterback landscape is somewhat thin this year, so I think he has a solid shot to find a place and grow into a starting role over time.
Robert Henry Jr., RB, UTSA
The running back class for 2026 mirrors the quarterback situation in that there’s uncertainty beyond the top prospect, Jeremiah Love from Notre Dame. Robert Henry Jr. from UTSA could show up on teams’ radars soon, thanks to his impressive stats. Coming from a small high school, he spent two seasons in junior college before transferring to UTSA.
In the 2025 season, Henry rushed for over a thousand yards, boasting an impressive average of nearly seven yards per carry. He also showed some passing capability, contributing with 17 catches for 112 yards. His performances have given him a clear path toward playing roles in NFL systems that favor a gap-first or inside zone approach. Just look at his opener against Texas A&M, with 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns; that’s hard to overlook.
Eli Heidenreich, RB/WR, Navy
When we think of versatile football players, we often picture defensive linemen or linebacker hybrids. But Navy’s Eli Heidenreich might fit that mold nicely as well. He was a low-profile recruit who stepped up and made a name for himself, leading his team in receiving and tallying some noteworthy stats.
In 2025, he amassed 1,440 total scrimmage yards and found the end zone nine times. He had solid rushing numbers, lots of forced missed tackles, and quite a few receptions that weren’t just short, safe catches. His versatility has the potential to be a game-changer in the NFL.
Ted Hurst, WR, Georgia
Moving to Georgia State, Ted Hurst is one of those players who looks ready to shine, even if he didn’t come from a huge program. His performance last season saw him catching nearly 1,000 yards in passes, along with some impressive plays against tough competition. How he slipped past bigger schools is hard to fathom, but he certainly has the skills to prove doubters wrong.
He’s portrayed as a receiver who operates best in open space, preferring to avoid heavy traffic. Still, a few drops may concern some scouts. I suspect there’s potential for him to become a solid NFL player, even if it takes a couple of years to hit his stride.
Bryce Lance, WR, North Dakota State
Lastly, we have Bryce Lance. Yes, he’s the younger brother of Trey Lance, but he’s carving his own path. Standing at 6’3” and running a 4.34-second 40-yard dash, he turned heads last season with impressive stats, catching over 1,000 yards. Lance has proven he can deliver big plays, which is invaluable.
His skills make him a prime candidate for a WR2 or even potential WR1 role in the future. He turned down significant NIL offers, showing commitment to his development. It would be interesting to see where he lands come draft day.
