Bitcoin Update Following Ceasefire with Iran
Bitcoin recently surpassed $78,000, experiencing a 2.2% increase in the last day and a 4.3% rise for the week. This surge followed President Trump’s announcement about indefinitely extending the Iranian ceasefire, alongside news that Strategy had acquired 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion.
In addition to Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies also saw gains. Ether climbed by 2.1%, reaching $2,366; BNB increased by 1.3% to $640; and Solana rose by 1.8% to $87. The only declines among the top ten cryptocurrencies were seen in stablecoins and Tron, which faced a slight drop of 0.1%.
Following Trump’s announcement, S&P 500 futures were up by 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%. However, the stock market itself dipped on Tuesday, partially due to stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices linger around $98 per barrel. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index decreased by 0.7% as investors pondered the duration of the conflict in the Middle East.
Trump attributed the negotiation breakdown to Iran’s “deeply cracked” leadership and emphasized that the U.S. would continue to block the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding new military actions.
Strategy’s acquisition of Bitcoin marks its largest purchase since November 2024. The 34,164 BTC were bought at an average price of $74,395 each, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC, with a total investment of $61.6 billion at an average cost of $75,527. At the current Bitcoin value of $77,541, this investment is yielding a modest profit for the first time in several months.
Shifting focus to market flows, global cryptocurrency funds saw inflows of $1.4 billion last week, the highest since mid-January, as reported by CoinShares. Specifically, Bitcoin attracted $1.12 billion, Ethereum $328 million, Chainlink $5 million, and Sui $2 million. On the flip side, despite rising prices, XRP experienced outflows of $56 million and Solana $2 million.
Two key signals suggest a potential upward trend. Bitcoin is currently trading above the realized price of around $69,400 for short-term holders, indicating that recent buyers are likely expecting gains. This situation historically reduces the chances of liquidations if market sentiment shifts.
A separate study from Nomura found that 65% of Japanese institutional investors hold Bitcoin as part of a strategy for portfolio diversification, while 31% hold a positive outlook on the market. Many of them plan to allocate between 2% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next three years.
The ability of Bitcoin to maintain its position above $77,000 during the European trading session will hinge on how the market reacts to the ceasefire extension amid ongoing issues in the Strait of Hormuz.
If Bitcoin breaks past $80,000, it could signal that the recent funding rate compression is evolving into a short squeeze. Conversely, a drop below $75,000 may indicate that the ceasefire extension has already been factored into prices, suggesting a new catalyst will be necessary for further gains.
