With just under six months until the November election, voters are feeling quite pessimistic about the economy, which seems to be benefitting Democrats. A recent poll indicates this atmosphere could lead to changes in the U.S. House majority, with negative perceptions surrounding both the president and the economy.
Currently, about 73% of voters view the economy negatively, a trend that has remained steady for at least two years. Furthermore, 60% of respondents are dissatisfied with their personal finances, and 70% feel the economy is worsening—a notable increase from 55% who felt similarly in April of last year.
The partisan divide is clear: Republicans are three times more likely than Democrats to view the economy positively, yet even among Republicans, over half still perceive the economy (56%) and their personal finances (52%) as being in poor condition.
“Polarization is so extreme right now that it’s tough to envision a scenario where Democrats would recognize President Trump’s policies as effective,” observed Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who collaborates with Democrat Chris Anderson on this poll.
Overall, 56% of participants feel Trump’s policies are detrimental to the economy compared to just 28% who think they are beneficial. Only Republicans express substantial support for him, with 57% in favor, which rises to 70% among MAGA Republicans but drops to 30% among their non-MAGA counterparts.
Household budgeting continues to strain families, with majorities reporting that rising costs of food (62%), gas (60%), health care (55%), and housing (52%) are significant issues. Gas prices stand out, with 60% categorizing these expenses as “major” problems—almost double the 33% from September 2025. Additionally, 89% say they’re at least somewhat troublesome.
Economic matters like inflation (26%) and the economy overall (17%) top the list of concerns for 43% of voters. Other issues are mentioned far less frequently, with political leadership and corruption (13%), potential war with Iran (11%), domestic divisions (9%), and immigration (8%) trailing behind. With the exception of concerns about the war with Iran, people’s priorities haven’t shifted significantly since last year.
Democrats tend to emphasize inflation/economy (41%) and political leadership/corruption (22%), while Republicans lean toward inflation/economy (42%), immigration/border security (14%), and the Iran situation (14%).
In terms of which party is better equipped to tackle these issues, Republicans are favored in areas like border security (+16 points), crime (+8 points), immigration (+8 points), and national security (+6 points). On the other hand, Democrats lead in climate change (+29), health care (+21), abortion (+18), transgender rights (+13), inflation (+8), and foreign policy (+6). Neither party shows a notable advantage in economic matters (D +4) or artificial intelligence (D +5).
Independents lean towards Republicans on only four out of twelve issues in the poll, yet they support Democratic candidates by a margin of 57% to 41% in common ballot queries.
If the election took place today, 52% would reportedly back the Democratic candidate in the House district versus 47% for the Republican, which reflects a difference of just five points—within the poll’s margin of error. This marks a 6-point rise for Democrats since January, when they were at 52-46.
“While this is positive for Democrats, it’s crucial to remember a couple of key points when evaluating the overall voting figures,” cautioned Shaw. “First, a lot of those Democratic votes are concentrated in districts that traditionally lean Democratic. They will probably need to win the national vote by one to three points to seize a House majority. Second, these poll figures aren’t likely to be an accurate predictor of voter turnout until late summer before the election.”
Currently, 68% of Democrats express they’re “very” willing to vote this year, in contrast to 60% of Republicans. There’s a similar trend among voters for 2024, with Kamala Harris supporters (72%) feeling more driven to vote compared to Donald Trump supporters (59%).
Both parties are seen as focusing on “the wrong” issues, with 61% of voters across the board echoing this sentiment. Independents are even more critical of Republicans (76% wrong focus) than Democrats (66% wrong). When asked which issues they wish political parties would discuss less, respondents from both sides show a clear fatigue regarding cultural and identity topics. Voters want less talk about transgender rights and diversity initiatives from Democrats (19%), less focus on Trump (16%), and less about border security from both parties (16% for Republicans).
Examining President Trump’s job approval, it stands at 42% approval and 58% disapproval—reflecting a slight change from the previous month, which was 41% to 59%. The president has only experienced positive ratings immediately after taking office in February 2017 (48% approval vs. 47% disapproval), with his lowest ratings hitting 38% to 57% in October 2017.
Support for Trump remains strongest among MAGA Republicans (96%), very conservative voters (85%), and his general supporters (83%). Meanwhile, his weakest support comes from women under 45 (28%), Black voters (19%), and Democrats (5%).
Despite his recent interactions about the Iran war, Trump’s approval rates among Catholics have either remained steady or risen slightly, landing at 51% overall and 57% among white Catholics.
As for First Lady Melania Trump, 46% of respondents view her favorably, which is six points higher than her husband (40%) and slightly more than Democrats (42%) and Republicans (42%). Her favorability has increased by one point over the past year, although her unfavorable rating has surged by 13 points from 39% in April 2025 to 52%. Now, 60% have a negative view of the president—up from 55% last year.
Polpuri
There’s a slight edge among voters regarding ICE, with 42% having a favorable view compared to 38% for sanctuary cities. Opinions about border security appear to be shifting, as 45% consider the current situation “about adequate,” while more people (31%) think it’s not strict enough compared to the 23% who feel it’s overly strict. This marks a significant change since 2023, when 70% felt border measures were insufficient.
From 2023 onward, the proportion of Democrats labeling the policies as “too tough” has risen significantly—from 17% to 41%—while Republicans expressing that it is “not tough enough” has dropped markedly from 91% to 46% at present.
