The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has rattled global oil markets, but there are growing concerns that rising food prices and fertilizer shortages might lead to famine in vulnerable nations.
Lars Jensen, the CEO of Vespucci Maritime, mentioned to Fox News Digital that the “worst-case” scenario could resemble the prolonged “Suez Canal closure from 1967 to 1975.”
“Ideally, a deal between the U.S. and Iran could resolve this within weeks, but it needs to be one where Iran feels secure enough not to shut the strait again,” Jensen commented.
He also noted that, even with a deal, it could take several months for supply chains to stabilize.
The Suez Canal was blocked by Egypt at the onset of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, as barriers, mines, and sunk ships impeded one of the world’s key maritime routes. It remained closed until 1975, marking a significant disruption.
During this eight-year closure, oil and goods had to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, a path exploited by Iran-backed Houthi forces in attacks on merchant ships amidst conflicts in 2023 and 2024.
The impact of the Suez crisis of 1967 resulted in an estimated $1.7 billion in trade losses (roughly $11 billion today), significantly affecting the owners and crews of 14 ships that were stranded. These vessels became known as the “Yellow Fleet” due to the dust buildup.
Since then, around 30% of the world’s fertilizers – essential chemicals such as ammonia, nitrogen, and sulfur – come from the Persian Gulf, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Qatar Fertilizer Company, the largest exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers, has largely halted operations.
Fertilizer prices have been climbing, further aggravated by the surge in fuel costs post-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which is crucial for modern agriculture.
David Miliband, Chairman of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), warned earlier this month that fertilizer shortages pose a “ticking time bomb” for global food security, emphasizing that “the window to avert a major hunger crisis is closing swiftly.”
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz soon, up to 45 million people could face starvation. Even if the strait is reopened, food and fertilizer prices are expected to stay high for months as transportation returns to normal.
Jensen further indicated that if the crisis adversely affects crop yields, it could lead to a “sharp rise in food prices in impoverished nations,” heightening the risk of famine and unrest.
This concern is particularly severe in regions like Sudan, embroiled in violent conflict and food scarcity, and Gaza, which is still recovering from the 2023-2024 war initiated by Hamas.
Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of Food Security at the World Food Program (WFP), stated that the current crisis in the Middle East is pushing us “to the brink of a catastrophic hunger crisis,” with potentially dangerous consequences globally. He pointed to fuel riots in Haiti and Kenya as examples, predicting dire impacts in countries like Somalia and Afghanistan.
Bauer also mentioned that the disruption to humanitarian supply chains since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine war is unprecedented, particularly during a time when global supply chains face unique vulnerabilities.
