The 2026 NBA Draft lottery is shaping up to be quite significant. Since high school, AJ Divanza, Darrin Peterson, and Cameron Boozer have been seen as a top tier trio, which has sparked intense tanking efforts this season. The emergence of North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson adds even more weight, making the draft’s four lottery spots really valuable.
This season’s tanking efforts have been so extreme that the NBA is planning to implement lottery reforms next year. The bottom three teams will find their odds worse than those ranked 4-10, and the very worst teams could entirely miss the top 10. With these sweeping changes, it seems that expecting to land a top pick is far less likely for struggling teams.
Fans and analysts alike have likely run countless simulations for the lottery at this point. But, the question arises: who actually deserves some luck in this lottery? It’s a subjective matter, of course, but there are definitely some clear answers. If fairness prevails, we might see some interesting results.
The Hornets, boasting an impressive net rating since January 1, seem to be on the rise in the Eastern Conference. Ideally, they’d benefit from selecting a power forward skilled at floor protection and spacing, or perhaps a more imposing center. Jaxel Lendeborg and Adei Mara from Michigan State would fit the bill nicely, but if they’re unavailable, I’d definitely keep an eye on Mores Johnson Jr.
The pressure on Miami is unrelenting, which made me consider boosting them into the top four. However, the odds of that actually happening are slim. If Miami were to pull off something miraculous, it’d be more probable for them to trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo than to climb into the top four picks.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
With the Clippers missing the playoffs, the Thunder will have their chance in the lottery. It would be a nightmare for the rest of the league if they get promoted, though the likelihood is low. Even finishing in 12th place should still present them with some hope. By the way, Jaksel Lendeborg once mentioned in March Madness how well he could pair with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
11. Golden State Warriors
Last year, the Mavs jumped from the 11th pick to the top overall slot with Cooper Flagg. Could the Warriors be in for similar luck? They seem to be making a strong case for good fortune after a debacle with Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL. It would be refreshing to see Stephen Curry back playing meaningful games before retirement, and having a top pick could aid that. Honestly, I’d love to see the Warriors climb up the rankings.
Odds for top 4 picks: 13.9%
The Bucks could only rise to a top-four spot if the Hawks are leading, as they owe a pick to Atlanta, which in turn has New Orleans’ pick. In a scenario where Oklahoma City doesn’t snag a top pick, it might be explosive if the Bucks ascend in the rankings. With Taylor Jenkins now at the helm as the new head coach, Giannis trade whispers are likely to heat up this summer. Securing the top pick might keep him around. I wouldn’t totally rule it out.
The Mavs benefited from just a 1.8% chance last year to acquire Cooper Flagg. So do they really have luck on their side? Regardless of the eventual spot, this pick is crucial for Dallas, particularly since the team’s future first-round selections are on hold until 2031 following deals regarding Luka Doncic. It feels like a stretch to think they could get lucky two years in a row.
Odds for top 4 picks: 37.2%
The Grizzlies downgraded their roster, figuring they were stuck in mediocrity, but it seems they may have undervalued Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Nonetheless, they have a promising young core with Zach Eady and Cedric Coward, and I trust this front office to find a strong addition in this draft, even without moving up. They’ve positioned themselves well for a little luck.
Odds for top 4 picks: 45.2%
Utah State has been at the forefront of tanking this season, even resting key players late in tight games. They’ve faced fines for it, too. Their main goal is to keep their pick in the top eight, as otherwise it goes to the Thunder. Some might say various teams deserve to win the lottery this year, but I wouldn’t put the Jazz on that list. However, looking ahead, they could be more competitive next year with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyontae George. Even if they don’t climb up, they could attract top talent like Keaton Wagler or Brayden Burries.
Odds for top 4 picks: 52.1%
The Nets have devised a plan to chase the top pick without resorting to overt tanking like Utah or Washington. Since parting ways with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, Brooklyn has endured a bit of bad luck at the lottery. They won’t hold a first-round pick in the upcoming draft thanks to Houston. Yet, with a strong coach in Jordi Fernandez and veteran talent like Michael Porter Jr. thriving, the Nets wouldn’t be in a bad spot if they land in the top four.
Odds for top 4 picks: 52.1%
Kudos to the Wizards. They finished as the worst team in the NBA with only 17 wins, but this keeps them from dropping further than No. 5 in the draft. Still, it’s not exactly a moment of celebration. I feel there’s a considerable gap in talent between the 4th and 5th picks. Washington seemed to tank hard, but surprisingly escaped any penalties. It seems they realize their fortunes have waned since trading Anthony Davis and Trae Young during the season. If they were to acquire the top pick, it could really reshape their strategy amidst rumors surrounding AD’s discontent. It’s curious, as they fell to No. 6 last year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if history repeats itself.
Odds for top 4 picks: 20.3%
The Bulls have the fourth-worst cumulative record over the last nine seasons, yet they’ve never had a top-three pick. The one time they moved up, it was to select Patrick Williams. After recently firing Arturas Karnisovas, they do have a bit of hope with the 15th overall pick sourced from the Portland Trail Blazers, but lottery luck will be essential for building a sustainable future. They’ve avoided serious tanking for years, pushing for a play-in tournament bid instead. Based on their roster, which seems bleak outside of some potential from Matas Bouselis, Josh Guidi, and Noah Essenge, it seems the Bulls deserve at least a shot in the top four.
Odds for top 4 picks: 43.2%
The Hawks might have a chance to make a significant trade in the 2025 draft, potentially swapping picks with the Bucks for a shot at progression. They’ve established a solid foundation and even pushed the Knicks in their recent playoff encounter. Moving up in the lottery could lead to an exciting season for the franchise. Still, it feels like they’re on the lookout for a No. 1 option, so targeting players like Darrin Peterson and AJ Divanza could really set them on a fruitful path. After missing out on Zachary Lizacher with the No. 1 pick in 2024, the front office changes seem to be yielding positive results. Watching the Hawks develop will be intriguing.
Odds for top 4 picks: 52.1%
The Pacers had an exhilarating underdog run to the 2025 NBA Finals but suffered greatly when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in the decisive game. They have a lot riding on this lottery since they traded for a top-four protected first-round pick for Ivica Zubac at the deadline. If this pick ends up at No. 5 or lower, it’s a loss for them. It’s easy to see how the Pacers could rise to the top if they land a healthy Haliburton, a full season with Zubac, and a top-four talent like Divanza, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson.
Odds for top 4 picks: 52.1%
Let’s not put the Kings in the same basket as the real tankers this year. They genuinely aimed to win but just fell short. With a roster that includes Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, and Russell Westbrook, they clearly had ambition. Unfortunately, it hasn’t yielded results. It’s frustrating for fans to watch now that former kings like Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox are thriving elsewhere. Despite their struggles, it feels like it might be their turn for some lottery luck after finishing 19th over the last two decades, without a first overall pick since 1989. Given everything, I think Kings fans truly deserve some good fortune. However, I fear the new lottery odds may widen the gap for Sacramento versus the rest of the Western Conference in upcoming years. In a season tainted by tanking, the Kings showed they were just not meant to lose, unlike others trying to game the system.
