Republican Representative Thomas Massey from Kentucky is trailing by over five points to his rival, Ed Gullane, a former Navy SEAL and businessman.
According to a poll conducted on May 11-12 among roughly 900 likely GOP voters in Kentucky, 48.2% favored Gullane while Massey received 43.1%. It’s notable, I think, that when voters who are still undecided made a choice, Gullane jumped ahead by eight points, leading 52.8% to 45.1%.
Early voting is set to start this week, with election day following on Tuesday, May 19th.
In previous polls conducted last month, Massey had leads of four and nine points, although those surveys had smaller sample sizes of less than 450 respondents. Five weeks can really change the dynamics in politics, right?
The more worrying news for Massey is that an April poll had him nine points ahead of Gullane (47% to 38%). Polling can be pretty erratic lately, but one typically looks to the same pollsters for trends.
In recent polling, Massey’s lead dipped significantly—from a nine-point advantage to a mere five-point one, which equates to a 14-point drop overall. Massey lost four points, while Gullane gained ten. In both polls, Massey, the well-known incumbent, didn’t clear the 50% mark.
“For an incumbent, particularly one with Mr. Massey’s name recognition and established brand, scoring around 43% on the first ballot is concerning,” a Quantus analyst commented. “While he does have a strong base, it appears a considerable segment of the Republican primary electorate is ready to pivot.”
It’s true that Massey has supporters, but the strongest and most loyal backing seems to belong to President Donald Trump, whose influence has the potential to reshape political landscapes.
Massey isn’t exactly a steadfast Republican that sometimes diverges from Trump; he comes off as someone seeking media attention. The New York Times often discusses issues like practical border security and tax cuts.
“Massie was against tax cuts for seniors, overtime workers, and others. His inclination was to increase taxes. He sided with Democrats,” Trump remarked in March.
“He voted against border security—transforming what was arguably the worst border situation into the best in just a couple of months—and he also opposed welfare recipient eligibility,” he added.
“Having a differing opinion is one thing, but voting against your party on numerous occasions can lead to many enemies. That’s been Thomas’s issue,” Vice President J.D. Vance pointed out in October. “It’s not just one issue; it’s a pattern. Every time we needed Thomas to step up, he didn’t.”
Unlike Senator Rand Paul, who can be frustrating but stands by his principles, Massey appears to be more concerned with catching media attention than holding firm to a consistent ideological stance.
