Economic Confidence on the Right Appears Unstable Again

With just five and a half months until the midterm elections, Republican optimism regarding the economy is faltering. Rising gas prices, inflation making a comeback, and an expectation that interest rates will remain elevated are all contributing to this shift.

That said, the mood among Republicans hasn’t taken a dramatic downturn. They still exhibit a certain level of cautious optimism regarding the economy. However, recent polling from The Economist and YouGov indicates that this economic optimism is becoming less stable and is struggling to counterbalance the significant pessimism seen among Democrats and liberal voters.

Voter sentiments, especially among Trump supporters, have shown extreme fluctuations—starting with a surge in optimism in February, followed by a dip in the spring, a brief recovery late in April, and then another retreat in May.

A significant indicator appears to be a survey question regarding whether the economy is improving or worsening. This sentiment is crucial; voters may tolerate economic imperfections if they feel things are on the upswing. Yet, if they begin to doubt this trajectory, their patience wanes.

February Optimism

In February, MAGA supporters were overwhelmingly optimistic, believing the economy was on the rise, with a notable margin of 63% to 12%. Among Trump voters, the split was 52% to 20%. Even conservatives were leaning positive at 50% to 23%, and more Republicans maintained this view at 49% to 18%.

But then geopolitical tensions escalated, leading to a spike in gas prices. During a poll conducted from March 6-9, MAGA supporters showed a drop in optimism, now at 54% improvement to 12% deterioration, reflecting a decline of 9 points. Trump’s supporters had a 49% approval with 21% disapproving, while conservatives had a rating of 48% positive against 20% negative. Although there was some resilience found in Republican ratings, the broader right was beginning to lose that strong February momentum.

Continued Decline

After minor fluctuations in April as hostilities appeared to ease, optimism took another hit. By May, MAGA supporters had declined to 47% improvement with 15% worse. Republicans now reported a split of 39% to 25% and conservatives reported 37% to 26%. Trump supporters dropped to 38% positive against 24% negative.

To illustrate further, the net “better” score—which measures the difference between those who think the economy is improving and those who believe it’s getting worse—showed a downward trend. For MAGA supporters, the score decreased from +51 in February to +42 in early March, rebounded to +45 in late April, and dipped to +32 in May. Trump supporters saw a similar fall, from +32 to +14 over the same period.

Personal Finances

While personal finance data for Republicans shows some comfort, it also indicates that the economic recovery seen in late April has lost momentum. In February, MAGA supporters felt their financial situations had improved by 26% compared to 16% the previous year. Trump supporters were at 27% to 19%, conservatives reported 24% to 20%, and Republicans 25% to 19%.

Despite the ongoing geopolitical issues, by late April, the situation had actually improved with MAGA supporters reporting 34% feeling better and just 12% worse. Republicans were at 33% to 16%, and Trump supporters at 31% to 17%. Yet, by May, this progress largely vanished, with MAGA supporters at 26% positive against 16% negative. Republicans also showed limited gains.

Looking ahead, the outlook remained somewhat positive. In February, 46% of MAGA supporters felt they would be better off financially in a year, with only 5% anticipating worse conditions. Republicans were more optimistic at 39% better vs. 8% worse. But optimism waned in May, with only 47% of MAGA supporters believing their situations would improve.

When assessing how individuals perceived the economy, in February, 56% of MAGA supporters rated the economy as “excellent” or “good.” By late April, this number rose to 62%, but May saw a decline again to 56% among MAGA supporters, 48% among Trump supporters, and 45% for conservatives.

Interestingly, Trump voters still carry a more favorable view of the economy compared to the general population. They perceive things more positively than many liberals and Democrats, perhaps due to low unemployment rates and resilient consumer spending. However, their overall confidence has been notably shaken.

This presents a political challenge for Trump and the Republican Party. Although the left’s pessimism is entrenched, the optimism that once characterized the right is now fluctuating and losing its power as a counterbalance.