On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump bypassed the established Republican favorite, endorsing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a crucial primary race. This late endorsement was met with enthusiasm by his supporters, though it may evoke a sense of déjà vu among Republican strategists.
Trump’s backing of Paxton over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn came just a week before the Republican runoff elections. He described Paxton as a committed ally of the MAGA movement, highlighting his support for both ending the filibuster and the SAVE America Act. In contrast, he criticized Cornyn for lacking support, stating, “He didn’t support it.” It seems, well, a tough situation.
While Trump’s fans welcomed Paxton, Republicans are likely to face the same tough decisions as they did during the 2022 primaries. Some say it’s not just about passion; it often circles back to money. Currently, Democratic candidate James Talarico appears to have the edge in polling, albeit slightly. The RealClearPolling average shows Talarico with a minimal lead over Cornyn, while Paxton trails him somewhat.
Paxton’s fundraising abilities haven’t matched Cornyn’s either. For instance, in the first quarter of 2026, Paxton raised around $2.2 million compared to Cornyn’s nearly $9 million. Overall, Cornyn’s total fundraising stands at a remarkable $26.5 million versus Paxton’s $13.5 million. A Texas Republican operative noted that support from Trump could have made a difference weeks ago, but Cornyn’s operations are more sophisticated, even as Paxton rallies a dedicated base.
Interestingly, Talarico’s fundraising was significantly higher, with $27 million raised in the same quarter. Concerns about Trump’s endorsement were echoed by Senator Lisa Murkowski, who questioned how this could benefit Republicans in a Texas race. She remarked, “Based on the numbers I’ve seen, yes… How does that help strengthen the president’s hand when he loses a state like Texas?”
The situation is made trickier by the funding disparity. Republicans might find it challenging to rally support for Paxton, needing to spend considerably to sway voters in favor of Trump’s pick. This could result in resources being drawn away from other competitive races nationwide.
This situation vaguely mirrors the challenges faced by Republicans in 2022. Back then, resource allocation led the party to prioritize easier seats, such as in Ohio, over tougher contests like Arizona, resulting in implications that still echo today. With another election cycle approaching, the party may once again find itself backing a candidate like Paxton, while pivotal races remain in the balance. Various pivotal contests, including those in Ohio and Maine, are poised to be critical in shaping the political landscape. Without adequate attention, they might not receive the necessary support due to the fallout from Trump’s recent endorsement.
