Experts in national security suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping might not need to mount a full invasion of Taiwan to pose a significant risk to the island, the U.S., and the global tech economy.
Some advisors to former President Donald Trump are sounding alarms that Xi could make moves against Taiwan within the next five years, particularly after a recent summit with Chinese leadership. According to a report, one advisor indicated that the summit raised the likelihood of Taiwan becoming a topic of discussion and expressed concerns about the vulnerability of the U.S. semiconductor supply chain in the event of a crisis.
However, national security analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that this perspective may not accurately reflect the situation.
“That’s not really how it is,” said Brandon Weichert, a national security expert. He noted that some factions within U.S. intelligence—and oddly, in Israel—seem intent on stoking tensions with China. He believes this stems from various motivations, though he feels many of those reasons are exaggerated or misguided. “Simply put, this isn’t real,” he asserted.
Adam Savitt, the director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, echoed Weichert’s sentiments, saying, “I don’t see China invading Taiwan in the next five years. An operation of that scale would be extremely complex, and the political consequences for the Chinese Communist Party would be significant.”
Weichert mentioned that Trump aimed to achieve multiple things during the summit with China, including support in the Strait of Hormuz, critical mineral exports from China to the U.S., soybean exports from the U.S. to China, and the purchase of American planes like Boeing. He indicated that none of these objectives were met.
While outright conflict with China seems unlikely, Savitt advised that it’s prudent to be cautious. He remarked, “Taiwan serves as a crucial part of the First Island Chain, limiting the People’s Liberation Army’s access to the Pacific.” He stressed the importance of military readiness and mentioned Japan’s impressive commitment to increasing its defense spending independently.
“This isn’t a significant concern.”
The Department of Defense reassured that it remains dedicated to countering Chinese threats in the region. An official stated, “We strive to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and are actively reinforcing our defenses along the First Island Chain.” They added, however, that they value open communication with China to minimize risks and prevent misunderstandings and emphasized they do not comment on hypothetical scenarios.
Weichert criticized what he sees as political maneuvering aimed at shaping public perception in the U.S. “This is merely a politically driven assessment meant to make the U.S. look bad after Trump’s visit to Beijing,” he argued.
Reports suggest China is enhancing its military capabilities to potentially occupy Taiwan, reflecting an increase in naval activity around the island, especially following the recent summit between Trump and Xi.
Trump has recently expressed plans to meet with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-de, marking the first such meeting since 1979.
The intelligence community reportedly believes Chinese leaders currently have no immediate plans for an invasion of Taiwan. However, they maintain that while unification is a long-term goal, its achievement timeline remains unclear.
Some analysts stress that alongside physical military preparations, Taiwan and the U.S. should also brace for potential cyber warfare. Christopher Wray, a former Pentagon policy aide, shared his concerns over the semiconductor supply chain and anticipates cyberattacks from China during a conflict.
Taiwan has historically been a major recipient of U.S. military assistance, although recent deals, including a significant $14 billion arms package, have run into delays. As discussions continue, the future of arms sales with Taiwan remains uncertain, with the Trump administration suggesting a decision will be made promptly.
Experts indicate a blockade of Taiwan could be a strategy China might consider, but warn that such a move also carries considerable risks, particularly as it might escalate tensions with the U.S. and allied forces.
Weichert noted that an invasion seems improbable, positing that a blockade could meet China’s objectives while minimizing casualties and resource expenditure. He believes Beijing has ample naval capacity to execute and sustain such an operation.
Yet, Weichert also suggested that it might be possible for China to achieve its objectives diplomatically within a decade, though he acknowledged the chances are slim. “China desires maximum strategic leverage,” Savitt commented, reiterating that while the threat of invasion is significant, it does not imply that an invasion is on the immediate horizon.
