Upcoming French Presidential Election Insights
Jourdan Bardera, the leader of the Las Assembrements national party, is anticipated to secure victory in the upcoming French presidential election. This comes as the macro-regime continues to dwindle, prompting voters to shift toward the far left.
A recent investigation by Odoxa mascaret reveals that among over 1,000 voters, Bardera, the president of the National Rally (RN), is positioned to replace Emmanuel Macron when his term concludes in 2027. The survey indicates Bardera boasts a solid lead of 32% in the first round—nearly double that of his nearest competitor, former prime minister Edouard Philippe, who stands at 17%.
Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre and leader of the neoliberal party Horizons, is regarded as the centrist choice most likely to continue Macron’s legacy, which aims to prevent the populist right and socialist left from gaining power. However, his support has dipped by four points since March, putting his chances of making it to the second round in jeopardy.
Trailing Philippe is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the head of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party, who currently holds 16% support. Given the two-round electoral system, only the top two candidates will progress, increasing pressure on Philippe to extend his lead over Mélenchon or collaborate with other centrist figures like former prime minister Gabriel Attal and current justice minister Gerard Darmanin. This week, some of these candidates voiced their support for immigration restrictions, seemingly to attract center-right voters.
The decline in support for Philippe has been, in part, influenced by an investigation announced earlier this month concerning potential embezzlement and favoritism related to a €2 million contract awarded to a charity tied to a political ally.
While Philippe aligns with Mélenchon, the RN leaders might find more comfort in Mélenchon’s rising popularity than they would publicly admit. In a previous Odoxa poll pitting Mélenchon against Bardera, the RN leader triumphed, securing 74% to Mélenchon’s 26%.
Nonetheless, there’s still some uncertainty regarding Bardera’s presence on the ballot. As the party’s “Plan B,” he is positioned second to Marine Le Pen, who has previously campaigned for the presidency three times without success. She faces potential disqualification from the 2027 elections due to allegations of misusing EU funds for political activities. Although a court ruled in favor of a ban on her running in European elections last year, Le Pen is appealing this decision, with a verdict anticipated this summer.
The strong performance of Bardera as a fallback candidate highlights the shifting political landscape in France and possibly beyond, hinting at a potential populist shift in cities like Paris, which may reflect similar movements in other Western European nations like Britain and Germany.
