Los Angeles Mayoral Race Heats Up

The race for mayor in Los Angeles is intensifying, with less than a week until the election. The three leading candidates are closely matched, creating an unpredictable situation.

Nithya Raman, a city councilor with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, is just one percentage point behind incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. After announcing his candidacy later than the others, Raman has gained traction, currently polling at 25%. Bass, on the other hand, has dipped slightly to 26% from a previous figure in an earlier poll from the University of California, Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times, released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, reality TV figure Spencer Pratt is not far behind, standing at 22%. He has gained attention after entering the race, especially following difficulties stemming from losing his home in the Palisades fire.

Both Raman and Pratt have enjoyed significant increases in support, each rising by 8 percentage points since March, while the incumbent Bass has remained fairly stagnant.

Earlier surveys indicated that Bass had a more comfortable lead, and many expected a runoff in November. However, these latest results reveal a significant shift in the landscape.

The pollster noted that the race is statistically close, as all three candidates fall within the margin of error.

Potential Outcomes

Mark DiCamillo, director of polling at Berkeley IGS, suggested that the level of voter turnout will be crucial in determining who advances in the race.

Notably, while both Bass and Pratt grapple with varying favorability ratings, Raman stands out as the only major candidate among the top three with a net-positive rating. According to recent polls, 57% of likely voters view Bass unfavorably, a slight increase from before. Similarly, Pratt’s unfavorable rating has risen to 57%, up from 28% earlier, with many voters previously expressing no opinion about him.

Looking at favorability, only 35% of voters view Bass positively, compared to Pratt at 25%. Contrarily, Raman has a more favorable outlook, with 40% of voters viewing her positively and 35% unfavorably.

Doug Herman, advising Bass’s campaign, shared that the election presents a clear choice: “It’s between a mayor focused on reducing homelessness and enhancing police presence, a council member with a history of voting to decrease LAPD resources, or a celebrity candidate.” They believe they will prevail.

Criticism continues to shadow Bass regarding her handling of the Palisades fire and broader homelessness issues, as the city struggles to achieve promised improvements.

In contrast, Pratt has utilized the widespread frustration over rebuilding efforts among fire victims, including himself, as a rallying point in his campaign. He also addresses homelessness, which has persisted as a critical issue despite the mayor’s pledges for substantial progress.

Raman has been vocal about his opposition to Bass’s “Inside Safe” homelessness initiative, labeling it too costly and unsustainable. Bass has countered, suggesting that Raman lacks power on the City Council and is ineffective in coalition-building.

Pratt’s rise has drawn parallels to former President Donald Trump’s transition from entertainment to politics, with Trump recently expressing support for Pratt, calling him a “great MAGA person.”

Currently, about 10% of voters remain undecided, a notable drop from March, when over a quarter were still evaluating their choices.

The race is nonpartisan, and if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote—an outcome that seems unlikely—the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff in November.

As it stands, while Bass and Raman appear to be slightly ahead for the final spots, Pratt is still a contender with the potential to influence the election outcome.

The next mayor of Los Angeles will take charge of the country’s second-largest city budget and will lead amid preparations for major events like the FIFA World Cup and the Olympics, both expected to draw significant attention and visitors.

This recent online poll, conducted in English and Spanish with 1,913 registered voters from May 19 to May 24, offers a clearer picture of where voter sentiments lie as the campaign approaches its end.