After the polls closed in Texas on Tuesday, reports emerged indicating that Attorney General Ken Paxton’s landslide victory likely marked the end of Senator John Cornyn’s political tenure. The 30-point margin also suggested a stronger position for Donald Trump.
“Last night was very strong,” Trump remarked during a Cabinet meeting at the White House the following day. On his social media, he previously referred to Cornyn as a friend and mentioned he would be headlining a gathering for Paxton soon.
Throughout the day, Trump shared news articles showcasing a perfect track record for primary endorsements this year.
“This is a total collapse, unprecedented in history, and an embarrassment to the Republican establishment,” he stated.
The runoff results not only highlighted Trump’s influence but also revealed vulnerabilities within the Senate’s Republican leadership. For several months, Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, praised Cornyn, declaring him essential for Texas’s safety. Following Cornyn’s critique of his opponent, the NRSC listed various scandals associated with Paxton.
In his concession speech that night, Cornyn affirmed his support for Paxton, despite having argued the latter’s moral unsuitability for office. Similarly, other Senate Republicans have shifted their stance.
“Supporting Ken Paxton in November equates to advocating for a safer, stronger, and more prosperous America,” stated Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso. He had previously backed Cornyn.
That same night, the NRSC deleted significant content related to Paxton from the past year. Some conservative activists are now calling for a major overhaul. Matthew Boyle from Breitbart News even tagged NRSC officials in a post criticizing their earlier support.
“This is a total collapse, unprecedented in history, and an embarrassment to the Republican establishment,” Boyle reiterated.
The NRSC found itself facing a dilemma similar to Paxton’s backers. Cornyn, as a senior Republican and influential fundraiser, could play a critical role in shaping the upcoming year for Democrats. His previous tenure as NRSC chair could have enabled him to finance a significant portion of his own campaign.
However, Paxton requires party funds to match the momentum Democrats are currently experiencing in support of his opponent. Additionally, Paxton’s controversies, including impeachment and fraud accusations, may provide ample material for Democratic ads.
Trump had also announced his backing for Paxton on May 19, just as early voting began in Texas, without alerting the NRSC or Senate Republicans beforehand. “He essentially told them he didn’t care about their preferences at all,” remarked Josh Blank from the Texas Politics Project. From the perspective of Republican insiders, it’s now evident that they not only need to invest more in Texas but also persuade donors that Paxton is a viable candidate, which is complicated by his controversial past.
Coincidentally, Democrats began airing ads featuring Paxton’s numerous controversies. His tumultuous marriage and the allegations surrounding his past actions serve as potent ammunition in the political battlefield.
Earlier signs indicated Cornyn’s re-election campaign was already facing challenges prior to Trump’s involvement. Conservatives had expressed discontent regarding Cornyn’s bipartisan efforts to implement gun control measures. In contrast, Paxton received endorsements from conservative organizations.
Yet, Cornyn had suggested that Trump might not be electable anymore, which seemed to circle back on him during this recent campaign.
“I worked well with him, but he didn’t support me during tough times,” Trump noted while congratulating Paxton.
Paxton reportedly outspent Cornyn in advertisements significantly, even while they stayed neck and neck for much of the race.
“Paxton might have won without Trump’s backing, but on that scale? Not likely,” commented Rachel Bovard from the Conservative Partnership Institute. “The Senate Republican conference is quite tightly-knit and their allegiances mean everything. It seems like the situation will shift a bit, but I’m not sure how that’ll affect Trump going forward.”
As the race unfolded, it became evident that it centered around who could secure Trump’s favor. Cornyn didn’t pose much of a challenge to Trump, unlike other party members.
Speculation grew when media reported Trump might support Cornyn due to pressure from Senate Republicans, leading Paxton to claim he’d halt his campaign efforts if a certain voting reform bill passed the Senate.
“That was a pivotal moment,” Blank said. “Paxton showed Trump he was willing to go to great lengths to align with his policies.” The proposed voting reform bill, however, remains stuck as several Republicans, including Cornyn, support maintaining a 60-vote threshold to pass legislation.
Some analysts suggest this further cements Trump’s overarching influence in the Republican Party, even amidst declining popularity.
“Trump’s control over the Republican Party is undeniable,” noted pollster Frank Luntz.
Though Trump’s involvement doesn’t guarantee Paxton a win, he does benefit from name recognition and a history of statewide victories. Yet, Talarico’s campaign has gained traction, and Republicans may struggle to mobilize voters in off-cycle years.
“Most Republican voters who’ve backed Cornyn in the past are expected to support Paxton now,” indicated Blank. “However, if a fraction sees Paxton as morally unfit, as Cornyn alleged, things could get competitive.”
In a recent radio appearance, Thune discussed Republicans adjusting their support for Paxton.
“Clearly, we’re shifting,” he said. “He’s committed, prepared for the upcoming election, actively fundraising, and doing what’s necessary for success.”
