As polls are set to close on Tuesday night, there’s an ongoing trend of increasing voter turnout. According to the Los Angeles County Register, over 1.3 million votes — both mail-in and in-person — were cast by 8 p.m., marking a rise of roughly 2% to 3% compared to the primary in 2022.
Election officials have noted that as more ballots come in and get processed, immediate results shouldn’t be expected.
Dean Logan, the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder and County Clerk, emphasized at a news conference that while some may express frustration over the counting process, it’s important to recognize that these procedures adhere to California law.
Turnout in Los Angeles is reported to be slightly above last year’s levels, with an increase of at least 1.5 percentage points. Analysts suggest that the uptick in participation can be linked to greater voter enthusiasm and a larger pool of registered voters compared to four years ago.
John Fleischman, an analyst, explained, “Simply put, there are far more registered voters this term than in the last presidential election cycle.” He added that with more registered voters, there are naturally more ballots being returned.
However, Fleischman noted that while turnout is rising, it remains early to determine which candidates or parties might benefit from it. Historically, Democrats have tended to vote early, while Republicans show up more on Election Day. “And that didn’t work this year,” he remarked.
Other political analysts pointed to the competitive nature of the current election as a factor encouraging turnout. According to Democratic consultant Stephen Mabilio, 2022 didn’t have as fierce a primary battle but this year’s contests, especially the city’s mayoral race, have garnered national attention and could draw in voters who might usually bypass primaries.
The heightened engagement coincides with several high-profile races, notably the Los Angeles mayoral contest featuring incumbent Karen Bass, reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, and progressive official Nitya Raman. Additionally, there’s a race to succeed outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom that includes former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, who is currently leading in the polls.
Pollster Paul Mitchell observed that Republicans seem to be ahead in early voting percentages, indicating higher early voting rates among them. “For some reason in Los Angeles, it’s 50-64 for men,” he mentioned, suggesting this could bode well for Pratt, although he cautioned that as more Democratic votes come in, that might change.
Fleischman noted that some Democratic voters may have delayed sending in their ballots due to fears of being sidelined in important races, which has caught many, particularly older voters, by surprise.
