The NCAA Baseball Tournament Super Regionals have arrived.
So, it feels like the perfect time to make some predictions.
There are sixteen teams still vying for a chance to head to Omaha, and for a few MLB Draft hopefuls, it’s another weekend to shine. But who will make it through the Super Regionals?
Morgantown Super Regional
No. 16 West Virginia vs. Cal Poly
How West Virginia made it to the Super Regionals
West Virginia, seeded 16th, has home advantage in Morgantown. They started off strong against Binghamton, but then faced a tough defeat to Kentucky in a nail-biter, dropping to the loser bracket.
However, they bounced back with a win against Wake Forest and then managed two more wins over Kentucky to secure their spot in the Supers, where they face Cal Poly.
How Cal Poly made it to the Super Regionals
Initially, many thought Cal Poly would clean up in Los Angeles.
UCLA was the top seed heading into the tournament but suffered a surprising loss to St. Mary’s, sending the Bruins to the repechage. Meanwhile, the Mustangs won their first two games and were ready for another matchup.
In the end, St. Mary’s eliminated UCLA with their second win, paving the way for Cal Poly, who triumphed over St. Mary’s 5-2 to head to Morgantown.
Morgantown Super Area Forecast
Cal Poly enters the tournament in good shape, while West Virginia’s recent success in the district tournament adds to their confidence. But can they quickly regain the momentum after a grueling few days?
Nonetheless, there’s something about this West Virginia squad that feels special, and they seem poised to make another gritty run.
How Little Rock reached the Super Regions
The Trojans rose from the Ohio Valley Tournament to find themselves in the fourth slot in the Hattiesburg region. Their first match was against Southern Miss, the seventh overall seed. After knocking off the hosts 7-4 in their opener, Little Rock continued to exceed expectations and surged toward the Supers.
How the Trojans advanced to the Super Regional
The Trojans wrapped up the regular season with a 32-29 record. Although they had their share of losses, they secured a bid and lived up to the committee’s faith by advancing after defeating Miami. Their journey also included two wins over the No. 8 Florida team in Gainesville.
Troy Super Regional Forecast
What’s interesting is that Troy’s challenging regular-season schedule played a big part in their selection. Despite their 29 losses, they held their own against tournament-bound teams, claiming wins against notable opponents like Alabama and Georgia. This super regional is a true “Cinderella” moment, with both teams making their Super Regional debuts and one aiming for Omaha.
Chapel Hill Super Regional
No. 5 North Carolina vs. Southern California
How North Carolina reached the Super Regionals
The Tar Heels grabbed the No. 5 seed and impressively dispatched their competitors in the Chapel Hill area, defeating VCU 8-0 and then East Carolina twice to reach the Supers.
How Southern California reached the Super Regional
The Trojans faced some challenges, starting with a loss to Texas State that pushed them into a repechage. After rallying to reach the regional finals, they needed to win twice against Texas A&M, the top seed.
But, USC managed to pull it off, dominating Texas A&M with a 14-3 win in the first matchup and then sealing the series with a 7-1 victory.
Chapel Hill Super Regional Forecast
With standout MLB draft candidate Mason Edwards leading their pitching staff, USC is in solid shape. Add to that right-hander Grant Goebel, and they appear to have a competitive edge. However, North Carolina’s success this season—winning 45 games against a tough schedule—suggests they are no underdogs either. Their lineup, featuring MLB draft hopeful Jac Schaefer, isn’t to be overlooked, especially with their strong team defense.
No. 4 Auburn vs. Ole Miss
How Auburn reached the Super Regional
Auburn began their tournament as the fourth overall seed but stumbled initially against Milwaukee, suffering a surprising 13-8 loss and dropping to the loser’s bracket. From there, they rallied, defeating North Carolina State 17-13 in the initial repechage, and secured their place in the regional finals with a 9-3 win over UCF.
Auburn then had to face Milwaukee again but emerged victorious to advance to the Super Regionals.
How Ole Miss reached the Super Regionals
Ole Miss earned a coveted spot in Lincoln, where they faced stiff competition from teams like Nebraska and Arizona. Despite expectations that Arizona State would dominate, Ole Miss remained unbeaten, starting with a close 7-6 victory over the Sun Devils and later shutting out Nebraska 1-0.
They then defeated Arizona State again, this time in a tight 5-4 match.
Auburn Super Regional Forecast
Despite recent struggles, Auburn possesses one of the strongest pitching staffs nationwide. They ranked high in team ERA this season and, I think, will regroup after their chaotic regional round to secure a spot in Omaha.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 14 Mississippi State
How Georgia made it to the Super Regionals
Georgia clinched the SEC Tournament and entered the NCAA Baseball Tournament as the third seed overall.
Their performance in home games was impressive.
Georgia dominated their three matchups, outscoring Long Island and Liberty by a staggering 40-5, boosting them to the Supers.
How Mississippi State reached the Super Regional
Mississippi State also enjoyed a smooth path, entering as the 14th seed and winning all three games at home to head to the Supers. Their victories included a decisive 10-1 win over Lipscomb and a solid 19-5 win against Louisiana State.
Athens Super Regional Forecast
Both teams have performed well in this tournament and are ranked in the top 16. In fact, during the pre-regionals, there was quite a buzz about Georgia State and Mississippi State, and both teams secured top 15 finishes in RPI, with Georgia at seventh and Mississippi State at thirteenth.
It’s worth noting, though, that Mississippi State faced an even tougher schedule.
I really believe in the power of a challenging schedule, so my inclination is to say Mississippi State will progress, though it’s tough to be definitive about this super regional.
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Oregon
How Texas reached the Super Regionals
Named as the sixth seed, Texas enjoyed home-court advantage in their regional tournament. They opened with impressive wins, outscoring opponents 35-3 in two games, only facing a serious test from UC Santa Barbara in the final, where they clinched a 6-4 victory.
How Oregon reached the Super Regionals
Oregon, coming off a strong Big Ten Championship Game showing, garnered the No. 11 seed. There were concerns that the Eugene area would prove challenging, but they indeed came through with three victories over teams, including Yale.
Austin Super Regional Forecast
Both teams have solid lineups, but Texas’ powerful hitting led by MLB draft prospects may just give them an edge.
Tuscaloosa Super Regional
No. 7 Alabama vs. St. John’s
How Alabama reached the Super Regionals
Despite a setback in the SEC quarterfinals, Alabama’s impressive 37-19 season record and good RPI (sixth overall) secured them a No. 7 seed.
The Crimson Tide swiftly handled their bracket, winning three consecutive matches to advance.
How St. John’s reached the Super Regionals
St. John’s won the Big East Tournament to earn their spot but found themselves as the No. 4 seed in Gainesville against Florida State.
They were seen as the underdog and surprisingly claimed three wins, including two nail-biters against Florida State.
Tuscaloosa Super Regional Forecast
This matchup truly feels like “David vs. Goliath.” Alabama, seated as No. 7 and boasting a strong RPI, stands tall with 37 wins against a quality schedule. In contrast, St. John’s faced a much tougher road, highlighted by playing the 142nd toughest schedule.
No. 15 Kansas vs. Oklahoma
How Kansas reached the Super Regionals
Kansas had an impressive turnaround season, clinching the Big 12 regular season title for the first time in decades and hosting a regional tournament for the first time ever. This follows a challenging prior season.
Against many expectations, the Jayhawks proved their worth by winning three games at home to advance.
How Oklahoma reached the Super Regionals
Oklahoma’s journey to the Supers was a bit bumpy. As the second seed, they faced Georgia Tech and paid the price with a one-run loss. This put them in the repechage game, where they needed to win against The Citadel to go through to the finals.
Consequently, they had to take on Georgia Tech twice and managed to turn the tide dramatically. They took the lead in the first game and, in a thrilling winner-take-all contest, they secured victory with a walk-off homer from Dayton Tokie.
Atlanta Super Regional Forecast
In the lead-up to the NCAA Tournament, I was always talking about Georgia Tech’s offensive might. They delivered in the regionals, scoring an impressive 46 runs across four games.
The Sooners certainly made their case for credibility.
