Every year, I find myself gravitating toward certain pitchers or teams, often without really planning to. It usually happens when I discover a team or player I like and they keep delivering victories, so I just kind of stick with them. Right now, I’m feeling a bit that way about both the Twins and the Rangers as they prepare for this matchup.
I mentioned before that the Chicago White Sox might be the biggest surprise in baseball this season, but the Minnesota Twins could certainly argue they deserve that title. Not too long ago, it seemed like the Twins were a lost cause, more likely to trade away players like last year rather than build a competitive team. It’s hard to say how much of this shift is due to Byron Buxton, who was featured in trade discussions last year and during the offseason. But, he’s having an impressive season, and despite their record, the Twins are only five games under .500.
Today’s starting pitcher, Joe Ryan, is another reason the team has found success this year. If the Twins do decide to put him on the trading block, he’s likely to attract a lot of interest and potentially command a nice contract. Ryan’s stats—4 wins, 3 losses, a 3.17 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP—are solid. While he’s struggled a bit on the road compared to home games, he had an excellent May with an ERA of 1.73. June wasn’t his best month, as he allowed eight earned runs over three starts, including four home runs. Interestingly, Rangers hitters have had a tough time against him, managing only a .143 batting average.
As for the Texas Rangers, they’re still in the mix for the American League West title. I know it’s only mid-June, but it’s notable that they’re just two games behind the Mariners, even without playing their best baseball this season. There’s definitely room to enhance their lineup, and I think if they were to add a player like Buxton, they’d become strong favorites for the division crown given the current state of their team.
But I’m not here to speculate about trades. Regardless, the Rangers’ pitching staff could still lead them to a wild card spot or maybe even a division title. Starting pitcher Jack Leiter hasn’t been the standout but has done decently. He’s got a 3-6 record with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, performing better at home with a 4.14 ERA. However, he has struggled by allowing four or more earned runs in nearly half of his outings. Against Leiter, Twins hitters are batting .417 in limited plate appearances, with Buxton hitting 2-for-2—including a double, a home run, and three RBIs.
I think it makes sense to expect more from Buxton today. He’s had quite a bit of success against Leiter in a single game, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up. Buxton’s having a great season, while Leiter isn’t typically one to falter easily.
In conclusion, I believe the Twins have the upper hand in this game. I usually root for the Rangers because I think they’re a better team overall, but the pitching matchup here favors Ryan and the Twins. I’d say to get Ryan’s Twins at No. 5 on the money line.
