The New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the worst performance among major currencies on Friday, sliding to a record low of 0.5724 against the US dollar (USD) and nearing its year-to-date low of 0.5781. The currency is on track for a weekly loss of 1.65%, as the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate increase overshadows positive investor sentiment surrounding the US-Iran peace negotiations.
This week, the dollar has strengthened, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and the new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s determination to combat inflation. Futures trading reflects a 77% likelihood of a rate hike in October, a notable increase from under 40% just a week prior. Moreover, there’s almost a 90% chance of at least one rate increase before the year ends.
On the geopolitical side of things, oil tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, which somewhat boosted risk appetite among investors. However, the ongoing attacks by Israel on Lebanon and the postponement of a meeting between US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials in Switzerland leave some uncertainty regarding the peace deal.
Technical analysis: Kiwis remain vulnerable while below 0.5800
Analyzing the technical aspect, it’s evident that NZD/USD is maintaining a bearish trend in the short term. The momentum indicators on the four-hour chart have shifted deeper into negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is around 33, just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero.
The bears have established some support at 0.5724, but indicators suggest that any potential rebound may face selling pressure. The next target below is close to the 2026 low, near 0.5680. If it falls further, there’s little in the way of support until the November 2025 low, around 0.5580.
On the other hand, if there is an attempt to recover, it might run into resistance at the intraday high of 0.5775. For any relief from the downward pressure, the pair needs to break through the trendline resistance found at Thursday’s high in the 0.5800 region as well as the late May peak, which sits near 0.5810. Achieving this could shift focus to the June 15 high at 0.5864.
(The technical analysis in this story was supported by AI tools.)
(This article was updated at 08:47 GMT on June 19 to clarify that it discusses the US-Iran peace agreement, not a trade deal, as previously stated.)
USD price today
The table below showcases the percentage change of the US dollar (USD) against major currencies today, emphasizing that the USD was the strongest relative to the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Australian Dollar | New Zealand Dollar | Swiss Franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.18% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.07% | 0.24% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.23% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.43% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.29% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.21% | 0.15% | |
| Australian Dollar | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.27% | 0.23% | |
| New Zealand Dollar | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.43% | -0.29% | -0.21% | -0.27% | -0.07% | |
| Swiss Franc | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.36% | -0.23% | -0.15% | -0.23% | 0.07% |
The heat map represents the percentage change between major currencies, with the base currency identified from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting USD from the left column and moving to JPY horizontally shows the percentage change indicated in the corresponding box as USD (base)/JPY (estimate).
