Concerns Over U.S. Actions Toward Cuba

It’s becoming increasingly clear that President Donald Trump may be leading the U.S. into yet another conflict, this time with Cuba.

The recent detention of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela has prompted the White House to tighten its approach towards Cuba, hoping for either a regime change or an uprising among the Cuban populace. Just a few months ago, Trump claimed that Cuba would “collapse soon” and was seeking a deal, but, so far, that hasn’t materialized.

Despite the dire predictions, Cuba is not collapsing; instead, the U.S. oil blockade has severely damaged its economy, pushing many Cubans into hardship. If we were in the opposite situation, we’d likely decry this blockade as an act of war.

On May 20, the Justice Department indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro, coinciding with the arrival of another U.S. carrier group in the Caribbean.

Raul Castro has recently appeared in public following his indictment for murder, signaling growing tensions.

Cuba, a struggling nation comparable in size to Virginia, poses no actual threat to the U.S. Even before the recent oil restrictions, its economy was barely hanging on, and currently, much of the island is without electricity, impacting hospitals, schools, and factories.

The hope behind crippling Cuba’s economy seems to be that it might create a “national security emergency,” which could justify regime change, possibly even using military force.

The culpability for these developments is widespread. The Cuban government has consistently violated human rights while aligning itself with some of the world’s most oppressive regimes, and the military’s tight grip on the economy has severely hindered Cuba.

Over the past six decades, the U.S. has attempted various means of removing the Cuban regime, ranging from armed invasions to financing dissidents and enacting extensive sanctions. Yet, this embargo has failed to achieve its objectives, only intensifying the struggles faced by the Cuban people.

There’s an ongoing need for genuine political and economic change in Cuba; after all, most Cubans have only known life post-1959 revolution and desire leaders who will foster accountability and transparency.

However, despite any misleading narratives that may arise, Cuba does not present a credible threat to the United States. Instead of heading toward conflict, it would be more prudent for both nations to pursue dialogue that respects national interests and the Cuban people’s needs.

Key elements for a constructive deal seem clear. Trump should lift travel restrictions for Americans and advocate for the end of the ineffective embargo, allowing for increased investment from U.S. businesses.

Moreover, Cuba should be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation lacking legal basis and international consensus, which presently hampers Cuba’s access to necessary international loans.

It would be wise for Cuba’s leaders to consider a deal; ending military control over the economy could encourage U.S. investment to help address the nation’s infrastructure issues.

Importantly, the Cuban leaders should free political dissidents and allow the Cuban populace the freedom to express their opinions without fear.

If both countries take these steps, it would mark a significant move away from the lingering tensions of the Cold War.

However, that doesn’t seem to be where Trump is steering us. Much like Maduro, Cuba’s leadership has historically prioritized their power over the welfare of their citizens. We should acknowledge that we might be heading toward an unauthorized, unjust conflict. There’s no clear backup plan if things don’t unfold ideally, nor any strategies laid out for post-conflict rebuilding or financing.

A U.S. attack could put both American lives and the Cuban population at risk and would likely draw condemnation globally. If Cuba’s leaders flee or face consequences, questions remain about who would step in to govern and maintain public services. The situation could devolve into chaos, forcing many Cubans to seek refuge in the U.S.

Public sentiment does not favor war with Cuba—especially after the costly entanglements in Iran that defied past predictions. Moving forward, it would serve everyone better if Trump focused on building consensus rather than resorting to a violent intervention funded by taxpayers.