Report Reveals Disturbing Crime Trends in Canada
A recent report, put together by Gary Moser and John Lott Jr., reveals that Canada faces a “serious crime problem,” shedding light on levels of crime that might be overlooked by many Canadians.
They note that crime statistics in both Canada and the U.S. tend to focus heavily on homicide rates, leading to potential misinterpretations. The upcoming 2025 forecast suggests that the U.S. homicide rate will be around 4 per 100,000 people, which is nearly double the Canadian rate of 1.91 per 100,000 in 2024. Many people might hear this and conclude that Canada is significantly safer, but that’s where the conversation often stops.
However, Moser and Lott highlight that homicides represent just a small fraction of violent crimes. In 2024, they claimed that homicides accounted for only 0.21% of all violent crimes in the United States. According to Canada’s 2019 General Social Survey, this figure drops to about 0.022% of violent crimes in Canada. A deeper dive into the numbers shows that Canadians are actually much more likely to experience assaults, robberies, and various other violent acts than homicides.
They are also skeptical of the data provided by crime surveys like the National Crime Victim Survey (NCVS) in the U.S. and Statistics Canada’s General Social Survey (GSS). These surveys illustrate that crime reporting levels in Canada are lower compared to the U.S., creating a misleading picture regarding actual crime rates.
This discrepancy could lead Canadians to feel overly secure. For instance, they pointed out that while the police-reported violent crime rate in 2019 was 885 per 100,000, the GSS estimated a staggering 8,300 violent victimizations per 100,000 people. This means police only captured about 10.7% of the violent crimes recorded in the survey.
Another complicating factor is that the definitions of various crimes in Canada differ from those in the U.S., which complicates comparisons. Moser and Lott argue that these differences can inflate the portrayal of violent crime in the U.S. relative to Canada.
Despite these complexities, the data remains striking. In 2019, they noted that Canada’s overall violent crime victimization rate was 295% higher than that of the U.S. Even when excluding sexual assault to account for definitional differences, Canada’s rate was still 175% higher.
