Here’s what you need to know on Thursday, June 25th.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hovered around 101.60 on Wednesday, which marks a one-year high. The markets are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—set to be released on Thursday.
Scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, the May PCE report is anticipated to shed light on whether rising oil prices, stemming from the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, are influencing core inflation. Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields could see some volatility.
USD price today
The table below indicates the percentage change of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies today, revealing that the dollar remains the strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Australian Dollar | New Zealand Dollar | Swiss Franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.42% | 0.52% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.10% | -0.19% | -0.17% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.09% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.05% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.19% | |
| Australian Dollar | -0.42% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.25% | -0.22% | 0.07% | -0.06% | |
| New Zealand Dollar | -0.52% | -0.26% | -0.15% | -0.35% | -0.29% | -0.07% | -0.12% | |
| Swiss Franc | -0.37% | -0.14% | -0.03% | -0.20% | -0.19% | 0.06% | 0.12% |
This table illustrates the fluctuations between major currencies, with USD as the base currency for comparison against others. For instance, if you look at the USD compared to the Japanese Yen, the displayed percentage change indicates the relationship between them.
The EUR/USD rate dipped toward a one-year low around 1.1360 but did bounce back slightly from an intra-trading low near 1.1325. Even with the European Central Bank’s hawkish stance, the euro wasn’t able to gain much traction. Isabel Schnabel, an ECB board member, remarked that “further rate hikes are necessary” to bring inflation back to target, emphasizing that interest rates haven’t yet reached a restrictive level, and a ceasefire isn’t a reason for the ECB to lower its guard.
GBP/USD has also dropped, nearing a one-year low of 1.3160, largely due to political uncertainty and weak economic data weighing on the pound. The S&P Global Flash UK Composite PMI fell to 49.4, down from 49.7 in June, with the Services PMI sinking to its lowest point in 41 months at 48.7.
USD/JPY saw an increase, climbing to 161.80, with the U.S. dollar benefitting from cautious expectations set by the Fed, although the Japanese yen remains at intervention levels.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD dropped below 0.6890, largely in response to Australia’s annual inflation rate. It fell to 4.0% in May from 4.2% the previous month, which was below the expected 4.4%. On the brighter side, the trimmed average inflation rate ticked up from 3.4% to 3.6%, hinting that price pressures continue. Traders are also eyeing the upcoming jobs report from Australia for insights into the Reserve Bank’s policy direction.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has continued its drop to a three-month low of 70.00 as supply risk premiums diminish, thanks to easing tensions in the Middle East and the reopened Strait of Hormuz.
As for gold, it has dipped below the $4,000 mark, trading at $3,980. Demand for this non-yielding asset has decreased, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects for longer-term interest rate increases from the Fed. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and future central bank demand may help to cushion further declines.
Here’s what’s next on the docket:
Thursday, June 25th:
- U.S. PCE
- U.S. GDP
- New unemployment insurance claims in the U.S.
- Australia’s unemployment rate and employment changes
Friday, June 26th:
- Tokyo CPI
- University of Michigan Final Consumer Psychology.
