Senator Susan Collins from Maine has consistently led in polling for her 2020 re-election. However, a recent poll by Siena indicates that Democrat Graham Platner has taken a slight lead in the race for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat in 2026.
Conducted between June 19 and 26, the survey of 608 potential voters shows Platner leading Collins 49% to 47%. The New York Times points out that this two-point difference is quite small and not necessarily definitive, especially given the poll’s margin of sampling error, which is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Burgess Everett, who heads Semaphore Congress, highlighted that Collins’ 47% support in the recent poll exceeds any public polls from her 2020 campaign as noted by RealClearPolitics.
During the 2020 election against Democrat Sarah Gideon, Collins consistently trailed in various polls leading up to Election Day. Estimates showed her approval rating fluctuating between 38% and 44%. The final polls indicated she was at 42% in the Emerson poll, while other polls showed her ranging from 40% to 43%. Ultimately, Collins won the election by a margin of 8.6 points, securing 51.0% of the vote.
Interestingly, while the current poll shows Collins at 47%, Platner’s 49% is reminiscent of Gideon’s 2020 performance. Collins has a track record of outperforming pre-election predictions; in 2020, polls suggested she would lose by a significant margin, yet she emerged victorious by a healthy margin.
The poll results indicate that Collins still holds an edge over Platner regarding perceived character and integrity. For instance, 66% of likely voters view Collins as having good character, while only 44% feel the same about Platner. Similarly, 61% believe Collins possesses strong moral values, compared to 45% for Platner. Additionally, 47% view Platner as too extreme, in contrast to 34% for Collins.
Voters also indicated that Collins would be more effective in bringing resources to the state, with a 61% to 34% preference. However, Platner edged out Collins in terms of being seen as an independent voice and in doing what’s best for everyday Mainers.
This polling follows several weeks of scrutiny regarding Platner’s past, including controversial online posts and allegations about his conduct. About 90% of potential voters reported awareness of these controversies, and nearly 30% of his supporters expressed doubts about his candidacy as a result.
A recent Republican National Committee video showcased Democrats grappling with questions about Platner’s qualifications and their support for him.
Democratic figures, including Senator Cory Booker, acknowledged multiple issues surrounding Platner while emphasizing the party’s need for Senate control. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez referred to the allegations as serious but framed the decision as a crucial choice to be made. Meanwhile, Senator Chuck Schumer reiterated his backing for Platner.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo critiqued the Democratic Party’s support for Platner, suggesting that leadership turned a blind eye to the controversies because he represents the party’s progressive faction. President Donald Trump weighed in, remarking that the Republican Party is gaining strength as voters react to candidates like Platner.
Both parties view Maine as a pivotal state in the fight for Senate control, with Republicans currently holding 53 seats. Democrats need to maintain their current positions and flip four more seats to regain control this November. Notably, among the Republican-leaning battleground states, Maine was the only one to vote against Trump in the 2024 election.
