Fuel Crisis in Russia Amid Ongoing Conflict
Lines at gas stations in Russia are becoming longer, and so too are the frustrations of motorists as months of conflict with Ukraine have ignited oil refineries and affected supply chains nationwide.
In various regions, fuel rationing has become necessary, leading to hours of waiting for drivers. Social media videos show individuals expressing disbelief at the lengthy queues, cursing the empty pumps and rising fuel prices. In fact, the mayor of Irkutsk ordered portable toilets to assist people standing in line.
This is an unprecedented fuel crisis for one of the world’s leading energy producers, a situation stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has now persisted for five years.
In a rare moment of acknowledgment, President Vladimir Putin admitted that “issues remain for both motorists and businesses,” and stated that “lines continue at gas stations, making it hard to find the right type of gasoline.”
Despite this, he characterized the shortage as “not serious” and “temporary.”
Oddly enough, even in wealthier areas like the capital, where economic fluctuations are usually cushioned, some drivers are still left feeling uneasy. “I don’t think the situation is very good,” a driver commented, speaking to the Associated Press just a day after Putin’s remarks.
“What they say on TV and the reality are different… Everywhere you look, people are waiting,” he continued, opting not to share his name for safety reasons.
Since late March, there have been over 50 reported attacks on oil-related infrastructure in Crimea, which Russia annexed illegally. Notably, the same site can be struck multiple times; for instance, a refinery in the Black Sea town of Tuapse faced attacks four times within two weeks.
Consequently, crude oil processing in Russia took a significant hit, plummeting 25% in June compared to the same time last year, reaching a daily low of 3.95 million barrels—the lowest in over two decades, according to oil market analyst Gary Peach.
“Such a power outage is unusual,” he mentioned.
Gasoline production has similarly declined by 17%, dropping to 850,000 barrels a day from 1.03 million a year prior, which is insufficient for domestic requirements.
Chris Wiefer, CEO of Macro Advisory, noted that roughly a third of Russia’s refining capacity may be offline, based on anecdotal evidence and information from within the sector, as no official statements have detailed the extent of the damage.
“This is a critical time for the Russian economy, with the agricultural season ramping up and demand growing,” Wiefer added.
Ukrainian officials framed the strikes as tactics aimed at compelling Moscow to conclude its military actions by disrupting logistical channels.
Ukraine is focused on isolating Crimea, which it lost in 2014—a situation largely unrecognized globally. In response to earlier attacks, fuel rationing was imposed in Crimea in May, followed shortly by a complete halt on civilian sales, although some limited sales have resumed in Sevastopol.
There have also been large-scale drone assaults on major Russian cities, causing embarrassment for the Kremlin, as images of smoke clouds circulated widely despite restrictions on public reporting.
An attack on a St. Petersburg oil terminal on June 3 coincided with Putin’s annual economic forum meant to draw foreign investments, while a similar incident occurred on June 18 at a Moscow refinery, highlighting ongoing concerns.
By late June, over half of Russia’s regions were experiencing some form of gas rationing, with certain places implementing strict limits on purchases. Authorities have condemned hoarding and encouraged drivers to refuel only as necessary.
Restrictions on gasoline and aviation fuel exports have also been enforced, with discussions about banning diesel exports as well. In an effort to stabilize the situation, the Kremlin is considering importing fuel, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that talks with other countries are “ongoing.”
This predicament extends to remote regions of Russia where no refineries have been targeted by drone strikes. Viktor Shkrenko, who operates a retail business in the Omsk area, found the announcement of a limit on gasoline sales to 40 liters per vehicle “unexpected.” He expressed cautious confidence due to the presence of Siberia’s largest oil refinery nearby.
Meanwhile, waste collection services have temporarily ceased, and some bus routes in regions like Zabayakalye have been reduced, according to reports.
In Irkutsk, portable restrooms have been placed outside gas stations, and public transport fares are set to increase due to escalating fuel costs.
Pavel Kharitonenko from the Yabloko party noted the practicality of walking or using public transport now given the fuel situation, mentioning that supply deficiencies have been noticeable for several days.
While Putin claimed that gasoline reserves have only dipped 4% from last year, analysts suggest that the fuel may simply be in the wrong locations. “Supplies need to be redirected to areas facing shortages,” Wiefer explained, emphasizing that this isn’t a quick fix in a country as vast as Russia.
“There should be enough, but it takes time—weeks possibly—to move it where it’s needed. The logistics involved are significant,” he said.
Repairing infrastructure damaged by the conflict is also no simple task. Essential equipment for refineries often comes from abroad, making repairs both complex and prolonged due to the search for alternatives to avoid sanctions.
According to Peach, even if operations continue, it’s unlikely they’ll be at full capacity this summer due to the scale of damage. He added that some refineries may remain unrepairable until a cease-fire is established.
Repair timelines for the Moscow refinery, which supplies a substantial portion of fuel to the capital, are projected to take at least three months, leading to predictions that the supply shortages may last throughout the summer—especially with heightened demand in the agricultural sector likely continuing into September.
