Egg prices have dropped significantly, now at their lowest point since early 2023, after a sharp decrease from over $6 per carton last year—a clear sign of inflation. While many still recall the spikes in prices attributed to President Trump’s administration, the current decline seems to stem more from the market bouncing back from a significant supply disruption rather than any political policies.
Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that the price for a dozen eggs has decreased from $4.55 a year ago to just $2.19. To truly grasp this situation, we should first consider why prices soared in 2025, as today’s price drop likely reflects a rebound, or possibly an overcorrection, in the face of a past shock to the supply.
The USDA’s June Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook noted that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was responsible for a loss of approximately 36.3 million eggs in the first five months of 2025. This, when calculated based on the average egg production, suggests a potential reduction of around 4.46 billion eggs while demand remained mostly steady. The USDA has also projected that the industry will likely produce 14.9 million fewer eggs this year.
According to a USDA spokesperson, the HPAI impact on egg production has lessened this spring, and the number of egg-laying hens has increased, with a reported 18.8% uptick as of May 1 compared to last year.
Michael Faulkender, a finance professor at the University of Maryland, referred to the price surges in 2025 as a “temporary supply shock” from HPAI. He mentioned that once the affected flocks were replaced with healthy hens, the prices reverted to more manageable levels. Faulkender also lauded the efforts of the Secretary of Agriculture for managing the avian flu crisis, comparing its unpredictable nature to past pandemics.
While consumers benefit from lower prices now, egg producers are feeling the financial strain. Tony Wesner, CEO of Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., revealed that the average price of chicken eggs has plummeted by 35.2% compared to last year, resulting in significant losses for producers. He indicated that while profits were made last year, this year is proving to be quite challenging.
Dustin Stanton, co-owner of Stanton Brothers Eggs, echoed these sentiments, reporting a 20% drop in total revenue this year. Wesner suggested that the market might have overcorrected itself, stating, “There’s too much chicken and egg for what the market has to deal with today.”
Seemingly contributing to this surplus may be the rising trend of backyard egg production among homeowners and a potential decline in demand as food manufacturers adjust recipes to be less reliant on eggs during times of high pricing.
However, recent price changes aren’t solely attributed to market dynamics. The Department of Justice has initiated a civil lawsuit against three major egg producers for allegedly manipulating prices inappropriately. The Justice Department claims that between June 2022 and March 2025, these companies conspired to inflate daily prices, thus impacting egg pricing across grocery stores and eateries. Interestingly, this lawsuit doesn’t address HPAI, which contrasts with previous explanations provided during President Trump’s term.
White House Press Secretary Khush Desai emphasized that egg prices have significantly fallen since President Trump assumed office, crediting the administration’s interventions in managing the avian influenza outbreak. This situation, according to Desai, showcases Trump’s effectiveness in reversing what he called the incompetence of the Biden administration.
While egg prices are dropping, general grocery costs and household expenses continue to climb. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported an overall inflation rate of 4.2% over the past year, driven primarily by a 40.5% increase in gasoline costs, against a modest 3.1% rise in the food index. In a conversation about whether the recent drop in egg prices might hint at broader deflationary trends hidden by inflation elsewhere, Volkender expressed skepticism, suggesting that no widespread effects should be expected from the current fluctuations in egg prices.
