The euro (EUR) began the week on a somewhat subdued note, showing a slight decline against the US dollar (USD). Germany released factory order figures that exceeded forecasts, but ongoing worries about the US-Iran peace negotiations weighed on overall risk sentiment, providing some support for the dollar.
As of now, the EUR/USD pair is hovering around 1.1415, having struggled to maintain a position near 1.1470 late last week. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a range of six other currencies, has climbed above 101.00, bouncing back from Friday’s level of 100.60.
Improvement in German factory data and investor sentiment
In the eurozone, the latest German reports indicated a 1.9% month-on-month rise in factory orders for May, significantly beating the anticipated 1.2%. This rebound also, to some extent, offsets April’s 3.2% drop. Additionally, the Eurozone Centix Investor Confidence Index for July improved to -3.1, marking its highest point since the onset of the Iran conflict and a notable recovery from -13.4 in June.
However, this boost in investor confidence is somewhat tempered by renewed fears regarding the US-Iran peace agreement. On one side, Iranian officials are adamant about imposing fees on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, something the United States has categorically rejected. On another front, tensions have escalated between Iran and Israel, further complicating the already fragile ceasefire situation.
Later today, data on the eurozone’s producer price index (PPI) and retail sales will likely provide additional insights into the region’s economic activity. In the US, attention will be centered on the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is expected to reinforce the notion of solid economic conditions and might lay the groundwork for a speech by Fed Director Christopher Waller later on.
Economic indicators
Factory orders (compared to previous month)
Recent factory order data has been published. It includes metrics from the Deutsche Bundesbank such as shipments, inventory, new, and unfilled orders. An uptick in factory orders can signal economic expansion in Germany, potentially fueling inflation. It’s important to note, though, that German factories don’t significantly impact the overall GDP of the eurozone. A higher figure is generally favorable for the euro, while a lower one is not.
Economic indicators
Sentix Investor Confidence
Sentix Investor Confidence represents a monthly survey involving around 1,600 financial analysts and investors, gauging market sentiments around current economic situations and future expectations. The index published by Centix Inc. consists of 36 different metrics. Typically, higher values are seen as encouraging for the Eurozone and thus for the euro, while lower figures tend to have the opposite effect.
Final release:
Monday, July 6, 2026 08:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Actual:
-3.1
Consensus:
–
Previous:
-13.4
Source:
Sentix
