As the University of Michigan takes on the University of Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day for its first ticket to the College Football Playoff Championship, the blueprint for success will be pretty black and white.
The Crimson Tide lost to Texas earlier in the season, survived several one-possession games, and can be said to be playing on house money.
Alabama's season trajectory paralleled Jalen Milroe's rapid evolution. The sophomore proved he is the most dangerous deep ball passer in college football. Milroe has passed for 40 yards or more in 10 of his starts this season, leading Alabama to 5.8 explosive plays of 20 yards or more per game.
He's been perfect on every throw of 20 yards or more this year.
Aside from averaging 39 scrimmage yards and 12 total rushing touchdowns. Milroe's scrambling ability makes him a dual threat for Michigan by eliminating explosive plays and keeping him in the pocket.
The silver lining here is that Milroe showed vulnerability when forced to make mid-range throws. He attempted 62 times for 10 to 19 yards and threw seven turnover-worthy plays.
There's no question Michigan State can threaten him. He ranks fourth overall in total pressures and 13th in sack percentage.
If the Wolverines can withstand this pressure, Milroe will be more susceptible to turnovers. The Wolverines forced 13 fumbles, making them the single-best program in turnover margin.
Alabama's offensive line has also been weak, allowing 3.5 sacks per game, the 11th-most in college football.
The problem is, this offense doesn't have great talent.
Jace McClellan will be back in the University of Alabama's backfield after missing the SEC Championship due to a foot injury he has been dealing with all season. The Crimson Tide's leading running backs have been Milroe's best insurance on the ground, accounting for six rushing scores and leading the team in tempo with 66.9 scrimmage yards.
His absence did not disrupt Alabama's run game against Georgia. Alabama's victory was about more than that part, though they outgained the Bulldogs' explosive running game by 36 yards on 10 more attempts.
The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country against conceded points. They limited Iowa to 35 total scrimmage yards in the Big Ten Championship and held opponents to 87.1 yards all season.
The 30-day rest period also benefited the Wolverines' backfield, as Blake Collum and Donovan Edwards were fully healthy. The two are a dynamic one-two punch that has racked up over 100 yards on the ground all season.
Alabama's talented defense has made up for the inconsistent offense this season.
A lot will depend on what JJ McCarthy can do in terms of movement outside of the pocket. He's scrambled a lot less this season, and to make matters worse, he hasn't thrown for more than 150 yards in the past four games.
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Michigan has some issues in pass protection, so leaning toward the run game is inevitable. With McCarthy showing dynamic performances, we can expect the offensive line to improve after the rest period.
Regardless of whether that prophecy comes true, Michigan is still an offensive line that aims to beat Alabama. They avoid playing outside the zone and keep inside with their running backs.
This game is expected to be a slow-paced game where both teams rely on their defense, but Michigan's acumen in the turnover department will determine the outcome.
History seems to be influencing public opinion here, with Alabama's victory over Georgia, Jim Harbaugh's recent misfortune in the College Football Playoff, and skepticism about the strength of Michigan's schedule.
None of that should carry any weight from a tactical standpoint as the University of Michigan rocks the monkey on Monday.
