Utah is no longer a Mormon majority state. new paper The estimates were published this month in the Journal of Religion and Demography.
Since its founding, most Utah residents have been members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS). Currently, less than half (42%) identify as members. according to ABC4 reports on the study results.
“This number is significantly lower than previous media reports citing church figures that put Utah's Mormon population at approximately 60 percent as of 2020,” the report states.
Lead author of the study and professor of sociology at the University of Tampa Ryan T. Cragan told the outlet that the researchers are “not trying to say that the LDS Church is wrong,” but rather that “they used a very different approach to gather this information. “There is,” he said.
Researchers surveyed about 1,900 Utahns in the summer of 2022 and asked them a variety of questions, including about their religion. They used a method called “quota sampling.” This means researchers were setting quotas on various demographics to match Utah's official census data.
According to the report, the researchers were initially interested in how Utahns viewed science until they saw results on religious self-identification.
“To us, this seemed like a newsworthy little discovery because we actually have data showing the state that Mormons are no longer in the majority,” Cragan said. .
The researchers note in their paper that the LDS Church counts its members as people who have been baptized into the church, so the numbers published by the LDS Church are important in understanding who is actively Mormon. He said that the reliability of the system was low.
“With the exception of a small number of those who have been excommunicated or whose names have been formally requested to be removed, members remain on the church roll until death or, if missing, until their 110th birthday,” the newspaper said. ing.
Researchers also noted that more people, especially young people, are leaving the church. The church reportedly declined a request for comment on the findings.
“Today, nearly one-third of people raised as Latter-day Saints have left the religion,” Cragan said. “This is our best estimate at this time.”
The paper points to three main reasons why Mormons are no longer a majority in the state. The report says they are primarily people who have immigrated to Utah over the past several decades from other non-Mormon states, such as California.
“The second big trend is secularization, evidenced by the proliferation of coffee shops and breweries in Utah. In the late 1980s, LDS members kept 95 percent of their children in the church,” Cragan said. “Currently, that figure stands at around 67 percent,” the newspaper reported. “The third factor is the birth rate. Utah no longer has the highest birth rate in the nation. Over time, Utah will become a Mormon state as fewer children grow up in the church and more children leave the faith.” I will no longer be a believer.”
Cragun said he expects the percentage of Utahns who identify as Mormons to continue to decline. He also said he expects the percentage of Utahns who are religiously unaffiliated to increase.
“As the LDS percentage decreases, it becomes easier for people to leave,” Cragan said.
Kragun said that while he is confident in the study, other researchers need to create true probability samples to validate their findings.
Michael Wood, an assistant professor of sociology at Brigham Young University who was not involved in the study, agreed: “Further research with more robust sampling methods is needed to confirm the results.” he told the magazine.
