Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL Draft stock is up, but valid questions remain

During the last college football season, a quarterback faced a stout defense in a College Football Playoff semifinal game and performed admirably, causing many in the evaluation room to reconsider his draft prospects. I forced it.

Did you see it happen again?

Last season it was CJ Stroud.of Ohio The passer was seen by many as a strong candidate for the 2023 NFL Draft, but while his arm talent and accuracy were never in question, he played in the face of pressure and played outside the pocket and off the field. – His ability to create structure is questionable. Then he faced a phenomenal Georgia and its defense and turned in a great performance that changed the stars.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. may have done the same thing against Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

Like Stroud, Penix enters the CFP as a Heisman finalist, and his draft profile starts with arm talent and accuracy. Penix was at the helm of one of the most explosive offenses in college football, and his combination of speed, anticipation and touch in the downfield passing game created countless explosive plays in Washington's passing game.

But there were also some questions facing Penix as a prospect going into the Sugar Bowl. He's definitely surrounded by elite talent, as he can throw to an incredible wide receiver corps while playing behind a Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line.The unit allowed 11 sacks this seasonThat's tied for fourth-fewest in college football.

It is this second point that has many questions. Penix certainly put up big numbers this season, but his performance under pressure was a big question mark.according to Sports information solution, Penix was pressured with 135 dropbacks this season. With these plays, he recorded just his 78.8 in NCAA passer rating, which ranked him 42nd in college football. His success rate on those throws was 44.4 percent, which ranked 72nd in college football.

As shown in the graph, SIS66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” ranking Penix 138th in college football.

As a quarterback, pressure is a part of life. If he struggles in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher in the NFL. A recent example is the 2021 NFL Draft, Zach Wilson. Wilson also BYU, but had the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressure is applied, SISWilson had better numbers than Penix, including a 54.2% completion rate that ranked 26th in college football in the 2020 season, but no one who has seen him in the NFL knows how well he handles pressure. No one would argue that playing underneath is a strength.

But in the Sugar Bowl, Penix had a chance to show what he can do in the face of pressure and on college football's biggest stage. And his actions may have changed the conversation about draft prospects. On Monday night, Penix dazzled in the face of pressure, but the game started early. Toward the end of the first quarter, Washington found itself on second-and-9 at its own 21-yard line. The Longhorns implemented a five-man pressure package that included an intelligence that gave defensive tackle Byron Murphy II a free run on Penix.

Undeterred by the pressure, the Washington QB flicked a back-shoulder fade throw to wide receiver Jermie Bernard for a 29-yard gain.

This is a play from the end zone angle. You can see both the Texas stunt that creates pressure and the way Penix eyes Bernard's fade route from the middle of the field.

Two plays later, Murphy is in Penix's lap again. A big defensive tackle breaks up the inside double team, allowing Penix to make another free run. Watch as the QB senses the pressure, slides around the free runner, and looks to Roman Odunze on a digging route to move the chains.

Again, look at the end zone angle on this play. In addition to strengthening Murphy's own draft stock, this is a great example of a QB creating plenty of space in the pocket while keeping his eyes high in the face of pressure to make big plays.

Late in the second half, Penix again responded to pressure and needed to be creative as a passer. With Washington facing one out and 10 base at its own 38-yard line, tied at 14, Penix jumped out of the vacated field. Defensive tackle Vernon Broughton makes the right guard whiff with a swimming move, and Texas once again puts near-immediate pressure on Penix. But watch as Penix climbs up and escapes the pocket before flicking a throw on the move to Dillon Johnson late in the play.

(For those wondering, the play was reexamined and it was determined that Penix did not cross the line of scrimmage when he made the throw.)

Here's another angle of play. We give Broughton credit for his off-the-ball movement, but Penix once again showed he can create in the face of pressure when needed.

Perhaps the best example of Penix running away from pressure before making a great pitch came on the final play of this drive. With Washington facing second-and-10 at the Texas 29-yard line, Penix again faces near-immediate pressure with Ethan Burke unblocked on the left edge. Washington's passers step up around Burke and Penix is ​​able to fire rockets towards Jalin Polk while the pass rushers dabble with Burke.

As you can see from the angle of the end zone, cornerback Malik Muhammad manages to get his hands on the football, but the ball is thrown at him with enough speed that it passes through his hands and waits for a touchdown. I fell into Pork's arms.

Speaking of speed, you can't talk about Penix's game against Texas without highlighting this touchdown. It's a post route that splits the safety to Jalen McMillian and can best be described as a ball thrown in anger.

The end zone angle of this touchdown might be my favorite clip of this entire game. Washington catches Texas in two-high coverage here, running four verticals from a 3×1 alignment. As you can see by the angle of the end zone, playside safety Derek Williams Jr. knows exactly what's going to happen and calls for the backside safety to come and help McMillian's route.

But while the freshman safeties are good, Penix is ​​better.

So, will there be a match that will completely change Penix's reputation? Probably not, and he faces issues beyond his ability to play in the face of pressure. Penix is ​​an older prospect who will celebrate his birthday 24 days after the 2024 NFL Draft. He also endured multiple knee injuries, and each of his four seasons at Indiana were cut short due to major injuries. He suffered season-ending ACL injuries in 2018 and 2020, and season-ending shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2021.

Daniel Jeremiah, who covers the NFL and the NFL Draft, thought so. NFL Network I'm of the opinion that the biggest factor in his evaluation may not be the opinion from the scouts, but the opinion from the doctors.

But as we saw a year ago, one game was enough to change the conversation about Stroud. And unlike Stroud, Penix has one more thing he wants to do.

Another game to further change the conversation.