Steve Forbes, chairman of Forbes Media, and Andy Puzder, former CEO of CKE Restaurants, discuss the December jobs report and point out discrepancies in the report.
There is something wrong with the previous US employment statistics.
A closer look at numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the government quietly eliminated 439,000 jobs through November 2023.
This means the original employment results were inflated by 439,000 jobs and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.
The total proportion of jobs created by the government last year is even higher because the government ex post facto wiped out 439,000 jobs. The number of employees is increasing due to government employment increases.
High-demand jobs with high wages that will continue to rise in 2024
This is important because U.S. jobs data moves markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Moreover, they are a key factor in the Federal Reserve's decisions about the path to rate hikes and rate cuts. All of this impacts the wallets of U.S. consumers.
A construction worker helps build a home on January 5, 2024 in Miami, Florida. (Joe Radle/Getty Images/Getty Images)
“It’s time to stop trading payroll data,” tweeted David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research Associates. Based on his calculations, he said, the downward revision was “a staggering 443,000 jobs,” adding that the BLS “estimates” “more than 40% of the 2023 employment growth.” He added that it comes from the “fairy tale 'birth and death' model” that he uses for his work. Its employment report.
Once again, the government sector ranked high in job creation in December. In the last month of 2023, 52,000 jobs were created. As FOX Business' Edward Lawrence points out, the three-month average of jobs created by the government sector is 50,000 per month. Lawrence said Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su “didn't answer when I asked her if this was sustainable.”
December Job Breakdown: Which industries hired the most workers last month?
The health and social assistance sector, which relies heavily on funding from government spending, created around 59,000 jobs.
The problem of inflated employment numbers is not new.
In August 2023, the BLS issued interim revisions for the 12 months ending in March 2023, showing that U.S. job growth for that period was overstated by a net gain of 306,000 jobs. That's an average monthly loss of 25,500 jobs over the same period.
Private sector job creation was also revised down by 358,000 jobs over the same period, while government payrolls were revised down by 52,000 jobs.
People move wooden pallets in Manhattan on January 5, 2024 in New York City. (Spencer Pratt/Getty Images/Getty Images)
The Philadelphia Fed also raised eyebrows in December 2022 when an algorithm predicted that the BLS had overreported job growth in the second quarter of that year by 1.1 million jobs.
The president has also been accused of overestimating employment numbers. He claimed to have created 13 to 14 million jobs. But economists and market analysts say these are jobs the U.S. economy has regained after losing 22 million jobs due to pandemic shutdowns.
In fact, the economy under President Biden has “added” all the jobs lost during the pandemic and “created” 4.86 million jobs since February 2020. This is a rough result.
Additionally, the economy “added” all manufacturing jobs lost during the pandemic and “created” 201,000 manufacturing jobs. Only 6,000 were created in December 2023.
A man delivers a package in Manhattan, New York City, on January 5, 2024. (Spencer Pratt/Getty Images/Getty Images)
Manufacturing jobs are very important. It has a halo effect on other sectors, whether it's the service industry or healthcare. The manufacturing sector has contracted for 14 consecutive months.
Currently, the U.S. labor force participation rate is at a historically low 62.5%.
Edward Lawrence reports that December employment figures show 683,000 workers have dropped out of the labor force. Currently, the number of people who hold multiple jobs to make a living has reached an all-time high, reaching 8.69 million. Since June last year, the economy has lost 1.5 million full-time workers while adding 796,000 part-time workers.
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This means more workers are holding multiple jobs to pay the higher cost of living due to the cumulative 17.4% inflation rate under the White House.
That's not a good sign.
