In the last week alone, Israel killed a senior Hamas official in a Beirut airstrike, Hezbollah fired a rocket into Israel, the US killed a militia commander in Baghdad, and Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen exchanged gunfire with the US. are fighting a war. Navy.
Each attack and counterattack increases the risk that Gaza's already devastating war will spill over into the rest of the region.
And in the decades-long conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran and its armed allies, either side may choose all-out war rather than lose face.
Divisions within each camp are adding to the instability. Hamas may have hoped to draw his allies into a broader war with Israel with the October 7 attack. Israelis increasingly talk about the need to change the situation in Lebanon, even as the United States seeks to contain the conflict.
As the intertwined game of chess becomes increasingly complex, the potential for miscalculation increases.
Gaza is ground zero
Hamas maintains that the October 7 attack that triggered the Gaza war was purely an act of Palestinian resistance against decades of Israeli rule over the Palestinian people. There is no evidence that Iran, Hezbollah or other allied groups played a direct role or had prior knowledge of it.
But when Israel responded by launching one of the most devastating military operations of the 21st century in the besieged enclave of Gaza, home to 2.3 million Palestinians, the so-called Axis of Resistance, Iran and the rest of the region, The extremist organizations it supports have become almost unviable. bystander.
The Palestinian cause has deep resonance across the region, and leaving Hamas alone to counter Israel's anger would be the first time Iran has been on a collision course with the West since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It would risk dismantling the military alliances it had built.
“They don't want war, but at the same time they don't want Israel to continue attacking without retaliation,” said Qassim Kassir, Hezbollah's Lebanon expert.
“Something big has to happen without a war. Then Israelis and Americans will be convinced that there is no way forward,” he said.
Hezbollah threads the needle
Of all Iran's regional proxies, Hezbollah faces the biggest dilemma.
Tolerating Israeli attacks, such as the one in Beirut that killed Hamas's deputy political leader, risks being seen as a weak or unreliable ally. However, if all-out war is triggered, Israel threatens to wreak massive destruction on Lebanon, which is already in deep economic crisis. Even Hezbollah supporters may consider this too heavy a price to pay for its Palestinian allies.
Hezbollah has carried out near-daily attacks along the border since the outbreak of the Gaza war, apparently with the aim of capturing parts of the Israeli military. Israel is fighting back, but both sides appear to be carefully coordinating their actions to limit intensity.
Hezbollah fired at least 40 rockets at Israeli military bases on Saturday, sending a message without starting a war. Was 80 too much? What if someone was killed? How many casualties would it take to require a full-scale attack? Hard math doesn't give clear answers.
And in the end, it may not be a one-shot success.
Israel has been armed near the Lebanese border since October 7, with tens of thousands of its citizens determined to return to communities near the Lebanese border where they fled after Hezbollah shelling some three months ago. The presence of Hezbollah may no longer be tolerated. The other side of the frontier.
Israeli leaders have repeatedly threatened to use military force if Hezbollah does not respect a 2006 UN ceasefire that ordered it to withdraw from the border.
“Neither side wants war, but we believe war is inevitable,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at Tel Aviv University's Israel Institute for National Security Studies. “Everyone in Israel believes that it is only a matter of time before reality needs to change so that people can return to their homes,” he said.
Will there be another American war in the Middle East?
The United States deployed two carrier strike groups to the region in October. One ship returns home, but is replaced by another warship. The deployment sent an unmistakable warning to Iran and its allies of escalating conflict, but not all of them appear to have gotten the message.
Iranian-backed extremist groups in Syria and Iraq have carried out dozens of rocket attacks on U.S. military bases. Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, potentially impacting the global economy. Iran insists its allies are acting independently and not on Tehran's orders.
After two decades of costly operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the last thing most Americans want is another war in the Middle East.
But in recent weeks, U.S. forces have killed an Iranian-backed militia leader in Iraq and 10 Houthi rebels trying to board a container ship, spilling blood that could prompt a response.
The US government has struggled to marshal multinational security forces to protect shipping in the Red Sea. But it appears hesitant to attack the Houthis on the ground, even as the group appears to be moving closer to a peace deal with Saudi Arabia after years of war.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials said the window for allies to oust both Hezbollah and the Houthis was closing.
How will this end?
As long as Israel continues its offensive in Gaza, claiming that its objective is to suppress Hamas, tensions in the region are likely to remain high.
Many have questioned whether that is possible given the group's deep roots in Palestinian society, and Israeli leaders have said it will take many more months.
The United States has provided significant military and diplomatic support to Israel's attacks and is widely considered to be the only great power capable of ending them.
Iran's allies appear to believe that the United States will intervene if the costs for their country become too high, such as attacks on U.S. military bases or international shipping.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the European Union's top diplomat Josep Borrell and German Foreign Minister Annalena Verbock are returning to the region this week with the aim of containing the violence through diplomacy.
However, the most important messages may still be sent by rockets.
“The Americans do not want to go to war with Iran, and the Iranians do not want to go to war with the United States,” said Ali Hamadeh, an analyst writing for Lebanon's Annahar newspaper. “Therefore, there will be fireground negotiations.”
