Syracuse and North Carolina earned conference wins on Wednesday, the Orange defeated Quinten Post and Boston College, and the Tar Heels did the same against DJ Barnes and North Carolina State.
The Heels are currently 4-0 in ACC play and I think they have a chance at a national title.
It's hard to rate oranges.
They don't have a bad loss, but they are currently 2-2 in ACC play. Despite having an elite point guard in Judah Mintz, Syracuse's offense has not been on track.
But I think the Orange can score here, and I know the Heels will score.
Syracuse vs. North Carolina predictions
(12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
With Jim Boeheim gone, Adrian Autry has transformed the Orange into a guard-heavy, up-tempo rim-running offense.
Although they weren't as efficient, they were good at the rim (1.22 PPP, 55th nationally) and seeing the new style was a breath of fresh air in central New York.
I think the Orange can score points at the rim on Saturday.
The Heels boast a solid inside defense, and Armando Bacot remains an elite post-up and rim protector.
However, North Carolina ranks only 94th in the nation in At-the-Rim PPP Allowance (1.10), which is relatively good but still favors Syracuse.
Additionally, the Orange uses plenty of off-ball screen secondary action to pop open shooters, and that's Syracuse's biggest advantage. The Heels rank 351st nationally in off-ball screens PPP allowed (1.28) and allow a lot of chances in those sets.
While I'm optimistic, I hesitate to say Syracuse will have consistent offensive success here. That will require good game planning from Autry and even better execution from Mintz.
But I'm very confident that the University of North Carolina will score a ton on Saturday.
Freshman point guard Elliott Cadeau has improved significantly since his debut, giving the Heels three dangerous, athletic guards between RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan.
Davis is active with his dribble drives and shot creation, and Ryan is doing all the little things right (91% from the charity stripe).
Behind those three, the Heels play as expected. They ran the floor and used their guards to dump the ball low to Bacot in the post.
Syracuse can't stop the dribble (306th nationally in ball screen PPP allowed, 1.02). The Orange struggled with post-up sets (280th in post-up PPP allowed, .84). They struggle to protect the rim (270th in at-the-rim PPP allowed, 1.18) and the paint (36 paint points allowed per game, 13th percentile).
Other than Mintz, I don't think Syracuse's backcourt can contain North Carolina's backcourt. Malik Brown is a better post-up defender, but is three inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Bacot.
Overall, I think Syracuse can score relatively efficiently if they play smart, and I know North Carolina's offense will score. The Heels have a supernova offense that can score at will, making for a great matchup here.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
So I think the total is too low and shoot at 150 or higher. ShotQuality predicts the total to be close to 160, so this line has value.
The past two games in Chapel Hill have been much higher than the total, with North Carolina giving up more than 80 points in each game.
The Heels boasted an impressive offensive rating of 125.5 at home this year and 102.4 on the road, so home court advantage is a big boost for the team — especially for freshmen, who will likely benefit from Dean E's comfort zone. This is my favorite Kado. Smith Center.
Syracuse vs. North Carolina picks
157.5 or higher (-110, BetMGM)
