Former President Donald Trump has a wide lead over his Republican rivals in the 2024 Iowa caucuses, but his approval rating has declined since just last month as candidate Nikki Haley picked up the pace slightly before Monday's vote. decreased slightly.
A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll found that 48% of likely Republican caucus attendees chose Trump as their first choice for president, as they did in December. This is down from 51% who responded.
Despite his declining approval ratings, he could be on track to secure the largest margin of victory in modern presidential election history in the closely contested Iowa Republican caucuses.
“Thanks to our grassroots supporters, we have put ourselves in a position to win, and now we will caucus for President Trump on Monday and deliver on our mission.” We have to. We have to show up,” President Trump said of the results.
Former South Carolina Governor Haley received the highest approval rating ever in the Iowa poll, at 20%, leapfrogging Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (16%) into second place.
The pair appeared to have swapped positions, as Haley gained four points and DeSantis lost three.
The Sunshine State governor was once expected to be a direct challenger to Trump, but he has not gained any traction since reaching his 19% approval rating ceiling in August.
No other candidates achieved double-digit scores.
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy came in fourth place with 8% support, almost double his approval rating in December. Texas pastor Ryan Binkley and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson both scored 1%.
Although the gap between Trump and the second-place candidate has narrowed, pollsters agree that Trump's base is much more secure, with 82% of Trump voters saying he is their first choice. The answer is that it is fixed.
Haley, by comparison, is in a “precarious situation,” said J. Ann Seltzer, who conducted the poll. he told the Des Moines Register.
Only 63% of her voters are steadfast, compared to DeSantis' 64% solid support.
Both candidates will have to contend with the 25% of Iowans who say they can still be persuaded, and the 7% who are still undecided about their first-choice candidate.
Selzer, president of the nationally recognized firm Selzer & Company, called Haley's results despite Trump leading in previous polls and ultimately winning the presidential nomination. The comparison was made to the last poll in Iowa before the 2016 Republican caucuses, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz led the way. .
“The detailed data (on Haley) suggests she looks stronger in the polls than she did on caucus night,” Selzer said.
The final vote comes just two days before the high-stakes caucus, which could be largely canceled due to severe storms that weather officials warn are “life-threatening”.
The poll was conducted from January 7th to January 12th among 705 people believed to be members of the Republican caucus, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
