When Hamas launched a blitzkrieg from Gaza on October 7, it did not signal the beginning of a new Arab-Israeli war. Nor was it a war of Palestinians against Israel. Rather, this barbaric onslaught marked the beginning of Iran's war against Israel, carried out by Tehran's terrorist proxies. Although the future course and duration of the war is uncertain, the Ayatollahs' underlying strategy is clear. The goal is to close the long-envisioned “ring of fire” around Israel and permanently weaken or even paralyze the Jewish state.
Jerusalem's leaders and many of its Arab neighbors grasp this reality. But sadly, this threat is not fully recognized throughout the Western world. Instead, too many decision-makers only see unrelated regional crises. They worry about an impending “wider war”, ignoring that it began on October 7th. Western countries are not thinking strategically about defeating the Iranian coalition, and are concerned about criticism that is often implicitly anti-Semitic and expresses “humanitarian” concerns about Iran. is being taken. Hostages kidnapped by Gazans or Hamas.
It is also unclear whether Israel has enough resolve to endure until it achieves true peace and security for its people. What Thomas Paine wrote about America also applies to Israel today. “This is a time when the human spirit is being tested.”
Consider the current political and military battlefield.
Gaza remains the most active front in this multi-front battle. The IDF has made steady progress since the October 7 raid, which coincided almost exactly with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which also caught Israel by surprise. Shortly after October 7, U.S. military advisers warned the IDF to tread carefully to minimize civilian casualties in their country and in Gaza.
Ironically, given the current pressure from the White House to bring the large-scale Gaza operation to a quick end, the American public is reluctant to support operations in Iraq to seize Fallujah and Mosul. He stressed that it took nine to 12 months. In particular, the extraordinary tunnel system that Hamas spent 15 years digging beneath the Gaza Strip was designed not to provide economic benefits to Gazans, but to enable Hamas and its backer Iran to wage war against Israel. This recommendation turned out to be wise, considering that it was intended to Therefore, diversionary arguments such as whether Hamas was conducting command operations under Al-Shifa Hospital, what it did was, you're missing the point. The management of Al Shifa Hospital and many others were undoubtedly aware of Hamas' activities and intentions.
Debate continues over whether Iran “ordered” Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack, or whether Hamas acted on its own, clearly pointing to Iran's role in the broader conflict. Initially, Iran and Hamas vehemently denied Tehran's leading role, coupled with clumsy and impassioned pleas for mutual support. Now, that pretense is no longer there.
Recently, Iran's foreign minister blackmailed “If the United States continues its military, political, and financial support to Israel and helps manage Israeli military attacks against Palestinian civilians, it must face the consequences.” Qasem Soleimani and His Quds Force worked for years to bring Iran's terrorist proxies across the Middle East closer together, correctly arguing that more coordination and joint strategy would increase the collective threat to Israel. That has now happened.
Moreover, the argument that Iran is “commanding” Hamas is misplaced. Political-military alliances rarely have a rigid hierarchical structure. Although the US leads NATO, no one seriously believes that the US government is “commanding” other allies. Most NATO decisions are preceded by extensive planning and coordination. No doubt, Tehran's senior political and military leaders are frustrated that Hamas and others don't see things the same way they do, but friction and conflict among coalition members is likely to limit the ultimate power. We cannot afford to obscure the whereabouts of the government.
Other militant terrorist groups also act on Iranian orders. For example, Yemen's Houthi rebels could not endanger merchant ships and Western naval vessels in the Red Sea without Iran's arming, equipment, training, and funding. The Houthis' geographic location gives them significant influence over the southern Red Sea and, by extension, the Suez Canal. 12 to 15 percent of (and part of) world trade 30 percent Container transport traffic) passes through. Insurance premiums and prices of various products have increased and will continue to rise as the conflict continues.
In recent years, the Houthis have launched Iranian drones and missiles against civilian airfields and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, giving Iran a launching pad in the backyards of its Gulf Arab enemies. The Houthis are threatened by what Iran has to offer. Iran is doing this not as a benevolence to the Houthis, but to further Tehran's own interests. On January 11-12, after months of inaction, the US-led coalition finally took office. hit At Houthi targets in Yemen. It remains to be seen whether this long-delayed military response will be enough to deter further depredations by Iran and the Houthis.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria is the crown jewel of Iran's decades-long effort to build a global terrorist network. Hezbollah's shelling of Israel resumed after Hamas's first attack, but the group has not yet launched an all-out war. Therefore, some say that Hezbollah is reluctant to partner with Iran, and there may be some basis for this. But like the Houthis, the tens of thousands of missiles Iran has supplied are not meant to empower Hezbollah, but to expand Iran's offensive capabilities against Israel.
Iran's next steps are unknown. Perhaps even Iran is uncertain. But if the Iranian government decides the time is right, Hezbollah will comply with the demands of its money managers. The same applies to the Assad regime in Syria, although its military power is less important.
Understandably, many Lebanese fear an escalation of the conflict, but Hezbollah and Iran may leave Israel with few options. Hezbollah's massive missile arsenal has the potential to overwhelm Israel's air defenses and cause untold destruction, and of course Jerusalem will not wait passively.
Westerners who constantly cry about “avoiding wider wars” are blissfully free from the consequences, even if their focus is wrong. Objectively, limiting Israeli or American self-defense only benefits the aggressor, who views restraint as a sign of weakness rather than goodwill, thereby inviting future attacks. It turns out. An Israeli first strike may be inevitable, but without it, the trajectory of this conflict remains in Tehran's control.
In Iraq and Syria, Shiite militias, which also receive full support and funding from Iran, form another front, primarily targeting U.S. military personnel and civilians. Since October 7, there have been well over 100 attacks by militias, including a rocket attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad.Thankfully, casualties so far have been low, but Pentagon officials say attribute The relative relationship between luck and fortune is not a good strategy.Washington's military response has gradually increased, with recent Exclude He was a militia commander in Baghdad, but these minimal actions did not deter further attacks.
Iran's own naval and air force assets constitute a potential fifth front. The Iranian government has been seizing oil tankers and other vessels in the vicinity for years, but unfortunately to date they have not been effectively challenged or stopped. Iran can therefore decide when to raise the stakes again in the region – and as if on cue, I did that last week.
Significant developments outside the Middle East also did not help. Most notably, Moscow appears to be changing its position, moving from relatively good relations with Israel (derived from Russian Jewish immigration) to outright hostility and alliance with Tehran. Almost immediately on October 7, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations asserted that, as an “occupying power,” Israel had no legitimate right to self-defense against Hamas. President Vladimir Putin later retracted his comments, but the argument was widely circulated among Hamas supporters.
Russia also ordered the Wagner Group to: supply Hezbollah is equipped with sophisticated Russian air defense systems, apparently to protect it from Israeli attacks. In addition, the Moscow Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Israel has attacked a shipment of Iranian sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah, saying it violates Syria's sovereignty and international law. Previously, to avoid casualties on the Russian side, Moscow had given Jerusalem a free hand, as long as Israel broke up the conflict with Russian forces before entering Syrian airspace. If that were to change, it would be an important new military reality, and one that would be very detrimental to Israel.
The UN's role in current conflicts has been largely invisible. As during the Cold War, the Security Council is in near-total deadlock. Holding accountable Hamas' barbarism, Houthi interference in maritime freedoms, Hezbollah's looming threat, or Shiite militia terrorists, as Russia and China provide political cover for Iran and its proxies. is impossible. Rather, it is primarily Washington's responsibility to protect Israel from the anti-Semitic performance art and propaganda currently on display at UN headquarters. The UN bureaucracy remains full of anti-Israel personnel, and UNRWA, the relief agency in Gaza and the West Bank, Effectively It will become part of the authoritarian and terroristic rulers of Palestine.
What Israel, the United States, and other allies will do in the coming days is as uncertain as Iran's war plans. To restore lasting international peace and security, Israel must achieve its stated goal of eliminating Hamas politically and militarily. The same is true of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias.
The real problem, of course, is Tehran. There will be no peace and security for anyone in the Middle East until a healthy government replaces the mullahs, even if it is not a Jeffersonian democracy.
This is a truth that is difficult for many to accept because it would inevitably require regime change in Iran. But make no mistake, that's what the Iranian people want. Not since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 has a regime been so weakened and threatened. After confronting Israel, the United States, and the West in general, Iran's success in the current conflict will only strengthen the Ayatollah's control. That is why Winston Churchill's World War II lesson for Britain: “No victory, no survival'' applies to Israel today.
John Bolton served as National Security Advisor to President Trump from 2018 to 2019, as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006, and as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations from 1981 to 1983, 1989 to 1993, and 2001 to 2005. In 2015, he held senior positions at the State Department.
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