Nikki Haley finishes in a disappointing third place in the Iowa caucuses and faces a tough battle for the Republican nomination after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remains in the race, slowing the former South Carolina governor's momentum. facing.
Haley and her supporters say a second-place finish, as expected in a promising Iowa poll conducted over the weekend, would have yielded a stronger showing in Iowa and a likely state on Jan. 23 in New Hampshire. I was hoping it might give her a big boost heading into the primary.
Instead, Haley will enter the Granite State looking to involve former President Trump, the lone winner in Iowa, even as she continues her battle with DeSantis.
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said finishing third meant “the hill in New Hampshire is even steeper” and that the caucus result was “not the escape from Iowa that she had hoped for.” He said there was no.
“There aren't many opportunities to send a clear message to New Hampshire voters, but if you can say with confidence, 'I have momentum,' one of those opportunities is the day after Iowa. I think it’s lost,” Scala said.
After the results became clear, Haley insisted that she was now in a two-way contest and had no desire to participate in a debate with anyone other than Trump and President Biden.
“There were five excellent debates in this campaign,” Haley said in a statement from her campaign. “Unfortunately, Donald Trump ignored them all. He has no place left to hide. The next debate I have will be with either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. . looking forward to it.”
Given the political benefits to be gained by ignoring Scrum, it remains unlikely that Trump would agree to a debate with either Haley or DeSantis.
Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51% of the vote, compared to 21.2% for DeSantis and 19.1% for Haley, according to polling data from The Hill and Decision Desk.
“I think she would have liked to have finished second in Iowa and won,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said of Haley. “Instead, the non-Trump vote remains divided heading into the critical New Hampshire primary.”
Conant argued that although he didn't have a big boost at Iowa, finishing so close to DeSantis put him in a relatively strong position. New Hampshire strategists also suggested voters in the state may not be paying much attention to the Iowa results.
Jim Merrill, a Republican strategist based in the Granite State, said given Haley's lower expectations compared to DeSantis, DeSantis, who has toured the state's 99 counties and secured the Iowa governor's support, is more likely than not. He argued that Haley may have even “overperformed” in Iowa given the relatively low expectations. Kim Reynolds (right).
Haley is poised to do well in New Hampshire with the backing of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R).
“That said, she is the only candidate with a chance to break out in the early states,” Merrill said. “We'll see what she does in the next seven days, but I don't think Iowa will change her trajectory here at all.”
Haley's approval rating among New Hampshire Republican primary voters is 28%, up from 18% in November, compared with 7% for DeSantis, according to the Emerson College Poll/WHDH New Hampshire poll released last week. greatly exceeded.
However, he is still 16 points behind Trump, who had 44% support in the poll, five points lower than his approval rating in November.
Trump's approval rating is about 41%, with Haley at 33% and DeSantis in sixth place, according to the latest polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk.
Haley may need a win in New Hampshire to have a real chance of winning the Republican nomination.
“I think we're at the starting point right now. It's very possible that's the end,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “If Nicky or Ron can be competitive in New Hampshire, they have a chance to be in the race.”
Haley is trailing Trump by a wide margin in polls in her home state of South Carolina, where the primary election will be held on February 24th.
“It's a very narrow path for anyone not named Trump,” Bartlett said.
Haley and DeSantis were the only two candidates to participate in a CNN debate in Des Moines last week. ABC and CNN have both announced plans to host a Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire, but after Haley announced her intention to skip the debate unless President Trump agrees to participate, DeSantis There is a possibility that they will leave on their own.
“Anything is possible in New Hampshire. But it's not easy,” Bartlett said.
“Don't get me wrong, it's still a very steep snowy mountain to climb here in New Hampshire. She's wearing granite heels, but it's going to take everything she's got and more.” I guess.”
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