China's ambitions to complete the hundred-year marathon, overtake the United States and become a global hegemon by 2049 are becoming increasingly fanciful. The economic and social problems faced by the Asian country in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic have not yet been resolved. In fact, the situation continues to worsen.
Collapse of the one-child policy
China is facing a worsening demographic crisis, due in part to related factors such as the Chinese Communist Party's one-child policy and a decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Women have a higher suicide rate than mensex-selective abortion, reduced fertility.
In 1990, 10 years after the one-child policy was implemented, the birth rate was over 20 children per 1,000 people. Over the next 25 years, the country's birthrate declined sharply, but the two-child policy in 2016 failed to curb it. The birth rate in 2021 hit a record low of 7.5 births per 1,000 people.
The birth rate reached a new low of 6.39 children per 1,000 people in 2023, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. report BBC.
The country's annual population has declined for the second year in a row, this time by an estimated 2.08 million people.
“This is not surprising,” said Stuart Gietel-Basten, a population policy expert at the University of Hong Kong. “This is exactly what happens in a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world. The population stops growing and declines. Let's start.'' Doctor of Science and Technology told the BBC.
In 1950, the year after the Communists officially took power, the country's birth rate was 5.29.Interest rates have fallen to record lows 1.16 Blaze News previously pointed out that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development considers 2.1 to be the standard for a stable population.
Demographic stability is further compromised by sex ratio imbalance. As of 2021, there are over 34.9 million more men than women in this country; report Newsweek.
“Right now, in a sense, it's fixed…This year is just next year, a new era of population stagnation or population decline in China,” Gietel Basten added.
Demographic problems are further exacerbated by economic stress, as many people in China who physically want and are able to have children reportedly cannot afford to do so.
economic hardship
Data released this week revealed that China's economy is experiencing one of the slowest growth rates in more than 30 years.Reuters report China's GDP is said to have grown by 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, disappointing many investors and analysts.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said, “The government has achieved its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of approximately 5.0% in 2023, but the It will be much more difficult to achieve expansion at the same pace.”
China Beige Book International's latest research suggests that “a major global upside surprise or more aggressive government policies will be needed to achieve true acceleration[this year].” did.
said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Said Newsweek said the administration's latest claims about the country's GDP growth are “completely unreliable.”
“If we focus on China's false GDP statistics, we risk missing the forest for the trees,” Singleton said. “China's era of rapid growth is over.”
“There is no getting around the fact that China is in damage control mode, attempting to project a sense of stability to the international community while grappling with a myriad of domestic challenges. If the cliché “Investor beware'' applies… , it's now,'' Singleton added. .
The country is suffering from high debt, Stock market in free fall,and real estate crisis It continues to blight this sector.
Reuters reports that the national unemployment rate rose to 5.1% last month, with China's economic recovery debatable and concerns about reinforcing lockdowns He also pointed out that the unemployment rate remains high.
The youth unemployment rate soared to 21.3% in June 2023, and the administration suspended the release of monthly data. The rate is said to have fallen to 14.1% in December, but it is still high enough to cause problems for a regime that has promised gradual improvements in living standards in exchange for accepting authoritarian rule.
China has to contend with a huge elderly population in addition to a potentially rebellious and predominantly male youth population. The BBC said the retiree population is increasing the burden on health and pension systems, and over the next 10 years he predicts it will increase by 60% to 400 million people.
guardian I got it. With 14% of China's population over 65, it tends to have more seniors than the entire U.S. population.
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