Major baseball analysis sites begin releasing their preseason predictions around the weekend of the NFL Divisional Round.
It's that time of year when avid baseball fans are itching for spring training.
I'm more of a hardcore baseball gambler than a true baseball fan.
Either way, now is the time to start taking a closer look at MLB win total bets, with all players required to report to camp on a monthly basis starting Thursday.
Here are two of my favorites I've found so far.
Mets 82.5 wins or more
There's no reason to get too excited about the Mets.
This team is not a World Series contender, nor is it a division contender.
The rotation is weak, the bullpen is lackluster, and the batting lineup, with the exception of Pete Alonso, lacks superstar power.
That being said, you have to be optimistic that the Mets will win more games than they lose in 2024.
Last year there was a terrible disaster. Things couldn't get any worse for the Mets.
Even from a luck perspective.
The Mets won 75 games, but their Pythagorean win-loss record was 80-82 based purely on goal differential.
That alone shows that a positive setback is looming for Queens.
And while they don't have the championship upside from a roster standpoint, they do have a much higher floor.
At least the Mets' roster is very clear.
Alonso will be the starting power bat. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are two players with four or five wins and will need to play 150 games to move toward the top of the standings.
There's nothing wrong with Jeff McNeil or Starling Marte.
Francisco Alvarez has a chokehold on the starting catcher job, but I'd love to see his bat (25 home runs in 123 games in 2023) get another year of action.
There are even more mysteries surrounding the pitching staff.
Still, it's impossible to completely hate a rotation led by Kodai Senga, a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, and a bullpen anchored by a healthy Edwin Diaz, a legitimate Trevor Hoffman Award candidate.
No more confusion and speculation surrounding All-Star, Cy Young, and MVP candidates scattered across the roster.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
No more worrying about the age curve and injury potential of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Instead, they have a basic roster with plenty of depth and clear hierarchy, with the FanGraphs ZiPS system projecting the 11th-highest WAR among MLB teams, with the Mets expected to win around 85-90 games. It will be.
The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and are studded with superstars, but they have a roster that will sell for a high price in 2023.
But the market is overreacting to the Mets' turnaround, and I'm buying cheaply on a team that should be a solid performer.
Tigers 79.5 wins or more
Although the Tigers seem to underperform every season, I think there is legitimate hope for 2024 at Comerica Park.
There is little hope for the batting lineup, but there is a lot of room for improvement for many Tigers.
Three young hitters, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kelly Carpenter, started pulling the ball through the air more and more in the second half of last season, and it worked wonders for Detroit's lineup.
FanGraphs projects Mark Canha and Austin Meadows to both post an OPS+ of 120 or higher in 2024.
It's also worth mentioning that replacing Miguel Cabrera in a regular designated hitter situation is worth about two wins per season.
The real hope lies with the pitching staff, with Tarik Skubal turning into a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
He projects to be the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of 2023 and a top-five starting pitcher in 2024.
Pair him with Kenta Maeda, Eduardo Rodriguez, and a few young pitchers in their mid-20s with legitimate upside, and the sky is the limit.
Most importantly, Detroit won 79 games last year and finished second in the AL Central Division.
The Tigers compete in one of the worst divisions in baseball, so 162 games will not sell well in the long run, making an 80-win season much more likely.
I support Detroit's upward trend.
