aAt the heart of this week's huge poll that predicted the Conservative Party would be wiped out in the election lay both a mystery and an obvious statement. Who was behind it? No one seemed to know. But what do they want? Apparently it's a change from Rishi Sunak.
The poll, supported by Tory peers and explicitly framed as showing the Prime Minister's policies are ruining the party, saw 60 backbenchers vote for a change in party policy. It is a sign of Mr Sunak's predicament that this was not even the week's biggest act of dishonesty. Major immigration policies.
That said, the YouGov survey, which extrapolated 14,000 voters to the constituency to give the headline result that the number of Tory MPs has fallen to 169 after the election, is perhaps even more likely for Sunak for a series of reasons. It can be said that it was an ominous thing.
First of all is the fact that he appears to be facing a new and, for now, anonymous opponent. While voting, Monday's Daily Telegraphpresented by Lord Frost, and the estimated cost of £70,000 was covered by the Conservative British Alliance, a previously unknown organization described only as a “group of conservative donors” .
Even if this organization were real, it has no presence on the web and is not registered as a company, charity, or electoral body. Those rumored to be behind it, but who say they are not, include GB News hedge fund manager Paul Marshall and a range of other figures on the Conservative right. .
Under British Opinion Research Group guidelines, all polls must state who commissioned them. However, all you need to communicate is the name (in this case David Frost), not who paid for the work.
Facts have been replaced by rumors, both pre- and post-election, including the idea that Mr Sunak's supporters are acting on behalf of ministers and former ministers seeking to replace him. ing.
The agenda of those behind the polls was clear.Both telegraph and frost In Monday's paper, he argued that the answer was to focus squarely on the concerns of Tory voters considering defecting to reform Britain, with the former saying this could mean the difference between a landslide defeat and a hung parliament. He claimed that there was.
Although this prescription is controversial, YouGov took the unusual step of adding a note to it. Voting explanation Such operations are highly unwelcome to Mr Sunak and his team, and senior officials at No. 10 are known to be furious.
On Monday night, Mr Sunak's campaign manager, Australian political strategist Isaac Levido, was clearly exasperated, telling a meeting of Conservative backbenchers that it was time to “get serious” if he really wanted to win the election. said that he had come. “Let me be clear: divided parties fail,” he warned.
What does that mean? As always, it depends on who you ask. Tim Bale, a political science professor at Queen Mary University of London and a close observer of the Conservative Party, said it appeared to be a salvo by a faction loyal to the party's small-state wing.
“Clearly there is some sort of concerted plan by someone to get rid of Rishi Sunak. It's not just that they want to push the Conservative Party in a certain direction, they're so desperate that they're in a leadership contest.” “Maybe they want to cause this,” he said.
Whether this would be successful was another question, Vail said. And there aren't any smart people waiting in the wings who want to do that. ”
One of the few Conservatives to publicly say they want to replace Mr Sunak is former MP David Campbell-Bannerman, co-chair of Boris Johnson's pro-Conservative Democratic Organisation.
“If Mr Sunak stays in office, he will simply be guaranteed a blackout for 10 years, if not longer. If he loses on the scale these polls suggest, 160 MPs, then “It’s a hellish cliff to climb,” he said.
“My view is that Mr Starmer can win with the right policies and the right leadership, or if not he can at least perform respectably. Tory voters are currently on strike. No, but it won't come back under a Sunak government.”
By contrast, one Conservative backbencher, normally loyal to Mr Sunak, simply rolled his eyes when asked about the poll. “Perhaps people would have liked to see Boris Johnson back, but frankly that's of no use at all,” they said.
But it had several uses, they added. “It’s clear that there are multiple people in this country who are more to the right than we are on immigration, and it’s good to remember that.”
What all sections of the party seemed to be united in was the claim that they had no idea who was behind the Conservative British Union.
“I don't know who they are. I've never encountered them before,” said former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. “When you get a poll showing that your party is not doing well, seat by seat, you're naturally going to be interested in that.”
Mr Rees-Mogg has sometimes criticized Mr Sunak, but said he would not support the mystery poll supporters if they were calling for a change in prime minister. election. However, I don't think it makes any sense. ”
