Andrei Rublev is nothing without consistency.
The 26-year-old Russian defeated Alex de Minaur in a thrilling five-set early Sunday morning to book his place in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Australian Open and reach his sixth final in the last seven Grand Slam tournaments. Due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (for which she was previously suspended), she will miss Wimbledon in 2022 for the 10th time in her career.
Rublev famously never made it to the semifinals.
Bookmakers also do not believe that the moment when the Moscow-born player will break in the quarter-finals will be in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Rublev lost +350 to Jannik Sinner in his seventh career fight. The Italian has won 4 and lost 2 in his first 6 matches.
Australian Open: Rublev vs. Sinner predictions
Everything about this match points to Sinner.
The world No. 4 has been on a hot streak in Australia, having yet to drop a set, and has spent far less time on court than Rublev, who won his second consecutive match in a pair of five-setters.
That being said, we are at the beginning of the tennis calendar and I don't think too much about this Russian's fatigue. He played a great fifth set against the tireless Alex de Minaur when everyone thought Rublev's tank was empty. The 6-0 scoreline suggests otherwise.
Sinner's path to the quarterfinals wasn't too difficult, which is good for a player who was expected to qualify for a Grand Slam due to his physicality, but Rublev held his nerve in key moments. That is also reassuring.
He won a fifth-set tie-break with Thiago Sabos Wilde in the first round and came from a 2-1 deficit to defeat Augie de Minard in front of his home crowd.
If Sinner continues his stellar form, Rublev has little chance of winning this fight. The Italian has been broken once and has won eight of 12 sets in fewer than 10 matches. It's world-beating.
However, maintaining that level is also very difficult, especially against a gamer who has many weapons like Rublev.
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My bet here is that Rublev can step up his level a bit here and Sinner will drop, giving the Russian a chance to provide value at a long price.
There's some value in playing on the prize line, but I'm afraid of the mental scars from Rublev's 0-9 record in the quarterfinals, and I'm afraid I'll have to play him to win the first set or cover the spread. I can understand if you choose to support the.
But a player good enough to reach the quarterfinals in six of his last seven Grand Slam appearances is good enough to pull off this kind of upset.
The Bet: Andrei Rublev (+350, FanDuel)
