Low energy in New Hampshire may point to depressed turnout

MANCHESTER, N.H. — New Hampshire political insiders are lowering their expectations for turnout in today's primary, even as the secretary of state is predicting record numbers.

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is responsible for promoting the nation's first primary, with 322,000 Republican votes cast, leading to the 2020 Democratic primary and the 2016 Republican primary. We predicted that the turnout would exceed the turnout.

But given the smaller field than in 2020 and 2016, strategists are giving a more pessimistic assessment of turnout.

“On the one hand, everyone knows Donald Trump. He's a known person. He's going to take the people out, but he's also got supporters like Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie. They were pretty prepared to vote for their candidate,” Chris Agar, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, told radio station New. Hampshire It's Tuesday.

“I know some of them said, 'My candidate isn't here.'” I don't care enough about Nikki Haley or Donald Trump to vote. “Therefore, if these people stay home, the expected turnout could be reduced somewhat,'' he added.

Agar said he believes 300,000 Republican voters could end up going to the polls on Tuesday, but more in his hometown of Amherst within an hour of the 6 a.m. polls opening. He added that he expected turnout to increase.

In an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday, Scanlan acknowledged that the smaller field would impact turnout on the Republican side.

“Several candidates on the Republican side have withdrawn from the race. And that narrowed the field quite a bit,” Scanlan told the network. “It's certainly going to affect turnout. I just don't really know how yet. I still expect healthy turnout on the Republican side.”

Data experts also predict a decline in voter turnout. Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ), said Republican turnout is “expected to be quite low.”

“DDHQ estimates that between 210,000 and 260,000 people will vote in the Republican primary, which is lower than the 284,000 people who voted in the 2016 Republican primary,” Tranter told The Hill. told. “Iowa's recent low turnout, partly due to inclement weather and partly due to the perception that President Trump is the sure-fire candidate, may be a sign of even lower turnout tonight. unknown.”

At the same time, Tranter said the lack of competition from President Biden in the Democratic primary could prompt more voters to join the Republican Party.

“Without a competitive Democratic primary, we could attract more unaffiliated voters, who could make up more than 40 percent of Republican primary voters. [to] “It will increase turnout in the Republican primary,” he said. “The situation on the Democratic side is uncertain, with DDHQ estimating that between 80,000 and 140,000 people will vote in the Democratic primary.”

Supporters of the dropped candidates argue that Trump's presence in the race as a former president makes the competition tougher.

“There's a core of quasi-incumbent candidates and the basic loyalty that goes with that on the Republican side that makes it difficult for other candidates to break through,” said Kate, a DeSantis supporter and former New Hampshire County Cheshire County Mayor. Mr. Day said. , Republican Party.

“It was a disgrace to voters for two leading candidates.” [to] Refuse to participate in our traditional NH debates. ”

New Hampshire House Majority Leader Jason Osborn, a Republican who also supports DeSantis, said the confrontation between Trump and Haley could generate some turnout.

“But how many people are tired of both choices? They're just different puppets with pretty much the same strings,” Osbourne told The Hill. “Are they going to be willing to come to the polls and vote for an alternative, or are they just going to stay home? I want to fill them with pride for Ron DeSantis, too.”

Given the waning energy surrounding this year's primary elections, it's no surprise that turnout would be lower. If there are fewer candidates, there will be fewer places to stop during the campaign, and there will be less hustle and bustle.

Downtown Manchester is usually buzzing with media and political tourists during the opening week, but lately there has been a dull atmosphere. Fergus Cullen, former head of the New Hampshire Republican Party, blames the 2024 issue. “People aren't excited about Trump or any of the candidates, including Trump.” [President Biden]” he told The Hill.

Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm University, blamed the lackluster primary on Trump's large lead in the polls. [an] I am currently employed. ”

That energy shortage has become a hot topic in New Hampshire politics. The lobby of the DoubleTree by Hilton in Manchester is always crowded and buzzing on the eve of a primary election. But on Monday night, there were only a few reporters and operatives in the lobby.

“The energy is gone,” said Boston Globe reporter James Pindell, who is covering the New Hampshire primary for the seventh time. “There aren’t many circuses in general. [Typically,] This is a crazy week, but not a crazy week at all.”

A reduction in the number of campaign events meant journalists were concentrated in small canteens, cafes, and school auditoriums.

A waitress at Mary Ann's Diner in Amherst loudly complained that the crowd of journalists covering Nikki Haley's diner was blocking her table and hurting her tips. Some Haley events limit the number of eligible reporters.

Mr. Cullen summarized his overall impression of the primary election as follows. “We expect to see less media coverage, no debates, less excitement, fewer participants, and fewer participants.”