Former President Trump won the New Hampshire primary by a 10-point margin over Nikki Haley. Trump became the first Republican candidate since 1976 to win competitive races in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.
Ron DeSantis ended his campaign two days before the primary, effectively turning the race into a head-to-head battle between Trump and Haley. Haley vowed to continue campaigning until the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary.
The results of a Fox News voter analysis of nearly 2,000 New Hampshire Republican primary voters paint a picture of a significantly closer race than last week's Iowa caucuses, which Trump won by 30 points. ing.
New Hampshire allows independent voters (those who are not registered with a party) to participate in the primary election, and these voters were a key reason why the race in the Granite State was closer than in Iowa. Independent voters made up just under half (47%) of the electorate, giving her a 26-point lead over Haley.
Donald Trump quickly defeats Nikki Haley in New Hampshire Republican primary
Former President Trump defeated his rival Nikki Haley, who served as two-term governor of South Carolina and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, by a 10-point margin in the New Hampshire primary. (Michael M. Santiago/Al Drago/Bloomberg)
Just over half (54%) of independent voters considered themselves Republicans. The remainder generally identify as independent (26%) or Democrat (20%).
Among registered Republicans, Trump handily outperformed Haley (+42 points).
Ms. Haley won by 24 points over political moderates, while Ms. Trump won by the same margin (up 24 points) over self-described “moderate conservatives.” He boosted his score among very conservative voters (+68 points).
In the end, much of Haley's support came from voters outside the mainstream Republican Party. In the 2020 election, just over half (52%) of her supporters supported Joe Biden, while 32% voted for Trump. In her primary four years ago, a majority of Trump supporters (90%) voted for him.
Those who identify as part of the “Make America Great Again” movement overwhelmingly supported Trump (up 77 points), while non-MAGA voters favored Haley by 52 points. Both candidates benefited from the dropout, as DeSantis finished second among both MAGA and non-MAGA voters in Iowa.
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Beyond ideology, education was a major fault line in New Hampshire's Republican district, even more so than in Iowa. Haley won college-educated voters by 22 points (Trump won Iowa by 2 points), but Trump had an edge among college-educated voters in both states (up 30 points in New Hampshire and 45 points in Iowa). increase).
Ms. Haley won suburban voters, a group that gave Mr. Trump a 6-point lead in Iowa, by a 1-point margin. Rural voters have once again become a major source of strength for Mr. Trump.
Despite millions of dollars in campaign spending and a flurry of events for candidates across the state, in some ways the campaign was over before it even began. A whopping 42% of voters knew who they were going to support, and almost all of them supported Trump.
These voters supported Haley, although a much smaller number (16%) decided after the Iowa caucuses.
Haley's supporters headed to the polls knowing they would have an uphill battle, as a majority of voters expect Trump to be the eventual nominee.
If Trump is the final nominee, he has work to do to unify the party. Just over half (53%) of primary voters are satisfied with Trump as the Republican candidate, but one-third (35%) are dissatisfied enough not to vote for him in November. Fewer people are satisfied with Haley as the candidate (39%), and 32% say they are dissatisfied enough to not support Haley in the fall.
Overall, three-quarters (77%) of Haley voters said they would not vote for Trump in November. Her 51% of his voters felt the same way about her.
Part of the dissatisfaction with Trump as a candidate may be due to concerns that he is too extreme to win the general election. Half of voters fear he is too extreme to win, including 37% who are very concerned.
Far fewer (35%) were concerned that Haley was too extreme.
WATCH: Haley congratulates Trump and vows to keep fighting
But for some, an extreme candidate may be what the country needs. Three in 10 want a complete and total upheaval in the way the country is run, and the majority supported Trump. His 68-point lead among these voters was even larger than his 55-point lead with this group in Iowa.
Half wanted major changes in the country's governance, but Trump won by a six-point margin.
Wanting big change doesn't mean New Hampshire Republican voters are looking for candidates who will break the rules to get things done. Only 17% said it was a very important quality in a candidate.
In fact, nearly all voters said having the mental fitness to be president is a very important quality for a Republican candidate. Being a strong leader, having the best policy ideas, being able to win in November, and caring for people like you were secondary priorities.
While Ms. Haley won over voters who thought it was very important for candidates to work in a bipartisan manner, Mr. Trump won on other characteristics.
WATCH: President Trump joins former rivals in addressing supporters
Meanwhile, as in Iowa, immigration was a top concern for primary voters. On the economy he was second, and no other issue was close.
Eight in 10 voters (79%) supported building a wall along the southern border, and only 21% opposed President Trump's signature immigration policies. Voters feel that immigrants do more harm to the country (68%) than help it (28%). Overall, Trump won immigrant voters by 47 points.
The gap narrowed among those who said the economy was the most important issue, but Trump still held a 9-point lead over Haley.
Six in 10 voters (60%) said they felt financially stable, but nearly three in 10 (27%) felt they were falling behind. These voters supported Trump by a wide margin (+58 points), but Trump and Haley split the break-even voters evenly (Haley +1 point). In Iowa, Trump won by 22 points over those who said he was stable.
Although far from the top of voters' priority list, foreign policy (8% said it was the most important issue) provided some fireworks in the campaign. Haley, who served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, attacked the country's relationship with the dictator and sought to draw a contrast with Trump's “America First” foreign policy. However, a majority of New Hampshire voters wanted the United States to play a less active role in world affairs.
People who wanted the US to be less proactive (Trump +40 points) or more proactive (Trump +14 points) in solving world problems supported Trump, but the current US stance is mostly right-wing. Those who feel that way supported Haley by 43 points.
In a hot question about foreign aid, half supported aid to Ukraine and two-thirds supported aid to Israel.
Voters who support aid to both countries supported Haley by 34 points. Trump's lead was much larger between those who would send aid to Israel but not Ukraine (+76 points) and those who opposed aid to both (+46 points).
FOX News Voter Analysis: What New Hampshire voters want from Republican candidates
New Hampshire Republican primary voters are more moderate on abortion than Iowa voters, with just over half saying abortion is legal in all or most cases, compared to 31% of Iowa caucus attendees. I think it should be. This helped Haley, who outperformed those who thought abortion should be legal by 22 points. Still, Mr. Trump won over supporters of outlawing abortion by a much larger 50-point margin.
Among primary voters, classified documents found in their Florida home (32%), allegations of obstruction of vote counting in the 2020 election (32%), or Trump's illegal conduct of events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th Relatively few people thought they had committed the act. , 2021 (27%).
Four in 10 (39%) thought President Trump acted illegally in at least one of these incidents, compared to 26% of Iowa Republicans who felt that way. Most supported Ms. Haley (+79 points), but among the majority group, Ms. Trump had an equally narrow margin (+67 points), saying she had not broken any laws.
Two-thirds of voters (64%) felt the incident was a political attempt to undermine President Trump rather than a legitimate investigation into an important issue (34%). Half (52%) say they have no confidence in the integrity of the U.S. justice system, reflecting President Trump's view that the justice system is out to get him.
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Similar people have no confidence in U.S. democracy overall (46%), and slightly fewer have no confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections (42%). Most people expressed confidence in New Hampshire's elections (86%).
Voters' distrust of US elections extends to doubts about the 2020 election results, with 51% saying Biden was not legitimately elected. Trump won these voters by 77 points, while Haley won by a narrow 61 points among those who felt Biden had won fair and square.
methodology
Fox News Voter Analysis is a survey of approximately 2,000 New Hampshire Republican primary voters conducted January 17-23, 2024. Full methodology details are available. here.
