The Michigan State Spartans were the preseason trending Big Ten Championship, considering the returning team, especially the elite backcourt duo of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard.
Meanwhile, the University of Wisconsin was picked near the middle in most college basketball preseason polls.
Instead, while Michigan State has struggled this season, the Badgers currently sit at the top of the Big Ten with a record of 15-4 and a 7-1 league record.
Michigan State can't generate anything from its frontcourt, hampering the quality of its shots and forcing Walker to create inefficient mid-range chances.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is still generating production from its frontcourt duo of Tyler Wall and Steven Kroll in Greg Gard's post-heavy scheme, and St. John's transfer AJ Storr opens up perimeter shots and driving lanes. He scored 15 points per game.
But I think it's time to sell Wisconsin and buy Michigan State.
The Badgers are facing an impending setback, while the Spartans are on track to win their third straight game after defeating Maryland on the road last Sunday.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Predictions
(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
For all his flaws, Sparty boasts a solid inside defense.
Madi Sissoko holds up with post-upsets (0.63 PPP allowed, 82nd percentile) and everyone protects the paint (24 paint points allowed per game, 98th percentile) from cutters (1.1 PPP allowed, 70th percentile) and hand offsets. (0.74 PPP acceptable, 73rd percentile).
As a result, Michigan State ranks in the top 40 nationally in two-point defense (45%).
This should be matched up against an intelligent, post-heavy offense that uses a lot of cutters. Shutting down Wall and Crowle down low derails Wisconsin's entire offense.
On the other side of the floor, Sparty is a guard-heavy offense that utilizes Walker and Hoggard inside ball screens to score mid-range or attack other players coming around off-ball screens.
In theory, Wisconsin's puck-line defense should be better against ball screens, but in practice that's not the case, as the Badgers' pick-and-roll defense metrics are questionable at best (0.84 PPP allowed, 18th percentile).
Even better, Wisconsin has been terrible against off-ball screens (1.14 PPP allowed, 24th percentile), so Walker/Hoggard should have open players to play against.
The puck line should be great against ball screens, but this scheme is always vulnerable to shooters who can go over the top. Wisco ranks 218th nationally in midrange PPP permits (0.79). Walker can reach anywhere on the floor and take shots from any spot he wants.
Tom Izzo's team also loves running the floor and forcing the ball behind the guard in transition. Wisconsin brutally denies transition opportunities, but the Badgers aren't very good at defending transition when opponents get them (1.08 PPP allowed, 25th percentile).
Home court advantage is strong in the Big Ten, so the Badgers should put down two possessions in this battle. However, the projections are for Sparty to be his 1-to-2 point road dog, and I think he'll stay close to that by taking advantage of a good schematic matchup.
Wisconsin is expected to lose more in the conference, and while I'm always willing to sell Big Ten teams high, this conference is too brutal to make it through.
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The Badgers aren't playing all that well either. They haven't been able to cover in the last three games. That includes a road loss to Penn State, a 5-point favorite, and a rough two-point win over basement-dwelling Minnesota, a 12-point favorite last time out.
I'm about to lose again, so please give me the Spartans and points.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Picks
Pick: Michigan State +2.5 (-102, FanDuel)
