CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday that reliably Democratic union members tend to lean toward former President Donald Trump.
After some tension, President Joe Biden finally won the support of the United Auto Workers (UAW) in late January. UAW President Sean Fein said ahead of the endorsement that the union had not decided who to support, despite Biden’s strong support for the union during the six-week strike.
But union members may no longer be reliably Democrats.
Enten said it has always been believed that union votes would flow to Democrats, but data from key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin show that Trump and Biden are in a heated race. He said that it shows that
“I think this might be a little surprising to some people. This is among union members in key battleground states, Joe Biden was at 47%. Donald Trump was at 47%. 47%. This is a clear move from what we saw in 2020. The recall vote for it was Biden plus 8. So this is a move towards Donald Trump. “We have similar support among union members,” Enten said, noting that in Michigan and Nevada, union members make up more than 10 percent of voters.
“What will be the trend in union membership over time?” asked CNN’s Poppy Harlow.
Enten explained that Democrats won the union vote in 1948 by a 62-point margin, noting that union voters actually made up a much larger share of the vote at the time. Former President Bill Clinton won the union vote by 31 points, while Mr. Biden won the union vote by 22 points.
“I was looking at some national polls there, and I also saw that this time the trend was tilting toward Donald Trump. So union members are a big part of the Democratic coalition, but Fewer and fewer union members are voting Democratic. Why is that? What’s going on here? Well, in the 2020 union vote, among college graduates, Joe Biden …gained 46 points for union membership, but no college degree. Donald Trump won that vote by 6 points. When we think of unions, we often think of blue-collar workers. But actually, there are a lot of white-collar voters in labor unions, and in fact, those voters are moving away from Biden, but if you look at blue-collar workers, they are the ones in the Trump campaign. Even more so.”
Union membership fell to an all-time low in 2023, despite the Biden administration pushing several policies aimed at promoting organized labor, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Related: Organized labor is causing ‘Union Joe’ Biden a lot of headaches)
In 2023, only 10% of American wage earners will be union members, down from a record low of 10.1% in 2022.
White House announced In March 2023, federal agencies have been working to move forward. Recommendations Created by a task force focused on worker organizing. The task force aims to provide workers with information on unionization, expand the collective bargaining rights of the Transportation Security Administration, assist workers in entering into collective bargaining agreements, and promote the importance of unionization. Recommended increasing federal messaging about sex.
