President Biden has a wide lead over former President Donald Trump in the popular vote in a hypothetical 2024 showdown, according to the latest national polls.
of Quinnipiac University research The same poll in December showed Mr. Biden leading President Trump 50% to 44%, after the incumbent led his rival 47% to 46%.
Biden’s strong numbers are supported by support from 58% of women voters, 52% of independents and 62% of voters with college degrees.
“Gender demographics tell a remarkable story,” said Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac polling analyst. “In just the past few weeks, driven by female voters, the head-to-head race against Trump has turned into a slim lead for Biden.”
By contrast, Trump has the support of 53% of male voters in this demographic, but only 40% of independents.
Even with third-party candidates thrown into the race, Biden still leads Trump.
In the five-person election, Biden had 39%, Trump 37%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14%, independent candidate Cornel West 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%. became.
The 45th president leads Biden among Hispanic voters, winning 47% of the vote to the Democrat’s 45%. But if President Trump’s approval rating is just 16%, that will be more than offset by Biden’s advantage among black voters.
This poll is a significant outlier, although RealClearPolitics’ average polling data shows Biden trailing Trump by a margin of 47.1% to 44.6%.
According to the paper, Trump’s Republican rival Nikki Haley would beat Biden by a 5-point margin in the popular vote (47% to 42%) in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, but she is a third-party candidate. It is said that they are expected to be defeated due to the addition of new members. investigation.
In the same five-person race, Biden has 36% support, but Haley has only 29%, RFK Jr. has 21%, West has 3% and Stein has 2%. There is.
In the Republican election, 77% of Republican voters and Republican supporters nationwide support Mr. Trump, while 21% support Ms. Haley.
More than three-quarters (78%) of respondents said Trump would be a better leader than Haley, and 77% said Trump had better policy ideas.
On the Democratic side, Biden has a 78% approval rating for the nomination, followed by self-help author Marianne Williamson with 11% and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minnesota) with 6%.
The president’s job approval rating is 41%, the highest since June 2023 in the Quinnipiac poll, but 55% disapprove of his performance during his time in office.
A majority of undeclared voters say they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy (55%), foreign policy (58%), the southern border (65%) and the Israel-Hamas war (58%).
At the southern border, 61% of respondents said they considered the situation a “crisis.” Within party lines, 81% of Republicans, 43% of Democrats, and 60% of independents said the same.
The poll was conducted by telephone from January 25th to 29th, surveyed 1,650 self-identified registered voters, and had a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. The sample included 696 Republicans and Republican-leaning voters with a margin of error of 3.7% and 693 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters with a margin of error of 3.7%.
A separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump in seven key battleground states, with Democrats leading in six of them. Won in 2020.
According to the poll, Mr. Trump has a strong lead in Arizona (47% to 44%), Georgia (49% to 41%), Michigan (47% to 42%), Nevada (48% to 40%) and North Carolina ( He defeated Biden by a margin of 49% to 39%. %), Pennsylvania (48%-45%), and Wisconsin (49%-44%).
