Brandon Aiyuk averaged over 6.5 targets per game this season, including the playoffs, but failed to reach four receptions in any of the 49ers’ last three games.
I don’t expect him to buck the Super Bowl trend, as the Chiefs defense presents a brutal matchup.
Steve Spagnuolo’s forces are based on blitzkrieg and manpower attacks.
Aiyuk fights humans.
This year, he posted a 70.6 percent catch rate against zone coverage, but just 63.6 percent against man.
Aiyuk could really struggle when matched against Rajarius Sneed, who has allowed just a 51.9 percent catch rate this season (a top 20 mark among NFL cornerbacks).
Snead is tied for third in the NFL in forced completions (17) and tied for ninth in pass breakups (10).
I think the Chiefs will slot Trent McDuffie and Deebo Samuel, so I’m expecting Snead for Aiyuk.
Brock Purdy, the quarterback who throws the ball to Aiyuk, struggles against blitzes.
The Chiefs blitzed 32.9 percent of the time, the seventh-best rate in the NFL, and Purdy’s blitz rate was about two points lower.
And if the Chiefs return home, it’s bad news for Purdy and Aiyuk. That’s because the second-year passer’s success rate drops to just 54.6 percent under pressure.
Lastly, I don’t expect a pass-heavy script from the Niners that will further destroy Aiyuk’s chances.
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The Chiefs have a bottom-five rushing defense in DVOA, EPA par play allowed, and success rate.
They are at the bottom of ESPN’s winning percentage metric.
The Niners will continue to protect the ball, Aiyuk won’t have a chance against Snead’s man coverage, and Purdy may not be able to launch the ball under pressure.
We expect it to be a tough match for Aiyuk.
play: Aiyuk receiving less than 4.5 (-125, BetMGM).
