Are the Phoenix Suns NBA championship contenders or pretenders?

time phoenix suns pulled the trigger blockbuster product They entered a “super team” club to acquire Bradley Beal. They further solidified their position in this category when they took part in the Damian Lillard deal to acquire players such as: Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen.

Unfortunately, early-season injuries hampered my ability to truly analyze and evaluate the new Suns. The team is currently performing well (*knocks on wood excessively*) and he has lived up to the opportunity with 10 wins and 3 losses in the last 13 games.

Now that we have a significant amount of data, we can finally begin to answer the question, “Is this team a true championship contender this season?”

Phoenix Suns Elite Level Initiatives

The three-headed monster of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal boasts a tremendous amount of skill and bucket scoring. That’s before you even mention serviceable shooters and second-side attackers like Allen and Eric Gordon.And to tie everything together, Nurkic has one of the best passing centers in the NBA, ensuring the offense operates smoothly.

All of this can add up to create a dynamic offense that produces Beautiful Game-like sequences of ball movement against weak defenses, like the play seen in the clip below (more on this later) I will explain).

Since Dec. 28, Phoenix ranks first in the entire NBA in effective field goal percentage (60.8%). It’s a nod to the breadth of shot-making that exists on this roster.

When you have that much talent on your team, you can give your offense a very high level. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far in Phoenix. Despite still working out some kinks, the Suns have been ranked second in offensive rating since Dec. 28.

(Side note: The Suns theoretically have the best spacers in the NBA. Between Durant, Booker, Beal, Allen, and Gordon, Phoenix is ​​one of the few teams in the NBA that can almost always field at least four shooters/spacers. One floor.)

In addition to a major roster overhaul, the Suns also made coaching changes this offseason. switch Frank Vogel and Monty Williams. Vogel has been coaching in the NBA since 2001 and has risen to prominence in the league using his defensive aptitude.

This Suns roster leans toward offense. But they’re still solid defensively (15th in defensive rating since Dec. 28), and that’s because of the effort level Vogel is playing with this team.

Vogel’s influence on this team can be seen in their performance against teams. new orleans pelicans On January 19th. In theory, the Pelicans offense should have an advantage against a team like the Suns (they are good at scoring in the paint, but the Suns don’t have a lot of size inside). However, the Suns held the Pelicans to an offensive rating of 107.0 (nearly 10 points below their annual average) and won 123-109.

A team with an elite offensive line and a coach good enough to get them on defense smells like a title contender, right?

Where the Phoenix Suns struggle

As you can probably tell from the headline, things aren’t completely perfect even in paradise. Let’s start with defense. This Phoenix team plays hard, but so do every team in the playoffs.

The Suns may be 15th in defensive rating as they remain healthy, but nine teams in the playoffs currently rank above them in defensive rating over this period.and it doesn’t count miami heat, denver nuggetsand Los Angeles Lakers – Three teams with better defensive talent and a better chance of making the playoffs than the Suns (they just haven’t had a great performance in that regard since Dec. 28).

As a result, the Suns were middling defensively in the regular season, but compared to playoff teams, they may be closer to a bottom team.

(Addendum #2: Go to build a good defense, must be good at either protecting the rim, creating turnovers, or defending at the point of attack. Ideally, he would be good at one or more of these three aspects of defense. Since Dec. 28, the Suns rank 12th in opponent rim frequency and 13th in opponent turnover rate. These marks are solid, but not great. Meanwhile, the point of attack defense is primarily captained by Booker and Allen. Both of these guys work extremely hard on defense, but their effectiveness in this role is limited for a variety of reasons. )

Even if the defense is unstable, history tells us If the offense is elite, they can compete for titles. We’ve said the Suns have elite offensive talent, but there are some reasons to be concerned about this team’s offensive ceiling.

As I alluded to earlier, while this Suns offense does well against weaker defenses, it can get bogged down against stronger defenses – as we saw against the Suns on January 28th. like. orlando magic.

In recent games, Phoenix has performed well against defenses outside of the top 10, but has struggled at times when forced to face top-10 defenses.

A big reason for this is that the Suns have plenty of shot-making ability, but a lack of play-making ability. To his credit, Booker did a great job. Improving his insight as a passer. He is having a career year in passer rating and is much more adept at hitting high-level deliveries ( skip pass).

But the Suns are relying too much on Booker’s development. Their offensive rating sees them swing 14.2 points per 100 when Booker is on the floor compared to when he’s off. That change is in his 97th percentile league-wide.

Phoenix doesn’t have many high-level on-ball creator/ball handler options other than him, as evidenced by the fact that the Suns are 29th in turnover rate (14.6%) since Dec. 28. .

Another problem with their offense is that even though Phoenix touts their untapped spacing talent, they are still losing the mathematical game. Since Dec. 28, the Suns are second in midrange frequency and 26th and 20th in rim and three-point frequency, respectively.

If it’s midrange, you can win. But if you rely on it as much as they do, your margin for error decreases. And when you factor in their concerns with defense and on-ball creation, that decline becomes even harder to accept.

How strong is Sans?

The Suns have a wealth of offensive talent and are able to put together sequences/games that make the offense seem unstoppable when firing on all cylinders. It’s also admirable how much effort they put into the defensive side of the ball as a team.

However, given the shortcomings outlined below, it’s hard to think of those teams as being on the same level as the inside title contenders (those teams are boston celtics,nugget, oklahoma city thunderand the Los Angeles Clippers) There was no major movement by the deadline (another topic for another article).

That being said, there is still hope. According to lineup data from Cleaning the Glass, Phoenix’s starting five (Booker, Durant, Beal, Allen, Nurkic) has the fifth-highest point differential among lineups with at least 400 possessions this year (100 per +14.2). That’s even higher than the Nuggets’ respected starting five of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic (+13.0 per 100).

This shows that this team still has some upside at the championship level if they can find a way to make everything work. So, while Phoenix isn’t a top-tier championship favorite at the moment, they have enough players on the roster to be worth watching.