There are two spots left in the NBA before the All-Star Weekend break.
With 13 games scheduled for Wednesday, let’s end the first half of the season on a high note.
Tyrese Maxey (76ers vs. Heat) 35.5 points + less than assists
There’s a lot to like about Maxey, one of the NBA’s rising stars. But there are a few things working against him when it comes to that 35.5 number Wednesday night.
Without Joel Embiid on the floor, Maxey’s assist rate drops by about 1.8%, averaging 5.3 assists per 36 minutes. That makes sense considering he’s looking to score more points without Embiid.
Without Embiid, his usage rate increased significantly to 4.9%, and he averaged 28.21 points per 36 minutes in those games.
Maxey will need to be very efficient to beat that number against Miami.
The 76ers made several loan deals to acquire Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne, who will take some shots away from him.
The Heat are also playing at the fourth-slowest pace this season and have a top-10 defensive rating.
Since Embiid’s absence, Maxey has had a few spiked games, but his scoring has been a little inconsistent.
Due to the game environment and the rookies in Philadelphia’s rotation, he is still playing very well and could remain lower than this 35.5 number.
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers vs. Bulls) 26.5 points or more
For some reason, Mitchell has been much better at home this season.
He has played over 20 games both at home and on the road, so I’m not sure if this can be considered a small sample size at this point.
He averages 30.3 points per game at home and 26.5 points per game on the road. However, advanced metrics support these splits.
His offensive rating improved by 12 points, his usage rate increased by 1.2%, his actual shooting percentage improved and he averaged 2.5 more free throw attempts at Rocket Mortgage Field House.
The Bulls play slow, but for a guy who likes to use the isoball a lot, it doesn’t really matter.
Chicago’s defense hasn’t been great, ranking 24th in defense over the past 10 games and 7.9 points worse on the road than at home this season.
The biggest concern here is flat tires.
Deni Avdija (Wizards vs. Pelicans) 14.5 points or more
Avdija may be in the midst of an expanded role following last week’s trade deadline. He has played more than 34 minutes in each of his last three games.
He completely shattered those numbers, scoring 24, 21, and 25 points in those contests, respectively.
In fact, he has exceeded that number in 12 of the 18 games in which he logged at least 30 minutes this season.
Do you want to bet on the NBA?
The Pelicans are a very tough matchup, but Avdija has scored at least 15 points against top defenses in this 30-minute sample size, including against the Knicks (twice), Heat, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Celtics. .
Two of his top five usage records this season came in February, so I’m pretty happy with him finishing on the right side of that number.
