Jalen Brunson is set to play in his first-ever All-Star Game. This impressive feat is one he should cherish for the rest of his days.
While some may view an All-Star nomination as an award for being one of the standout players in the first half of the year, strictly speaking, this selection means that the player is one of the best 25 players the league has to offer. It is thought to symbolize that.
So, is Brunson currently a top 25 player in the NBA?
Jalen Brunson Scouting Report: Offense
If you were forced to describe Brunson’s offensive play in one word, the word of choice would be “control.” Brunson doesn’t let himself play. He decides the terms of engagement.
Only Luka Doncic and Trae Young (NBA’s usage leader) have spent more time with the ball in their hands than Brunson during the season (NBA.com). Some of this is done out of necessity.of new york knicks There’s no better option than Branson’s Helioball. But a lot of that is down to Brunson’s ability to control the pieces on the board and always make the right decisions.
Brunson uses a combination of handle, strength, and footwork to get as deep into the paint as possible with his small stature and fires his patented short midrange floater. According to Cleaning the Glass, Brunson ranks in the 80th percentile among point guards in short-midrange accuracy (50%).
Once you have complete control over your body, you can use that mastery to deceive your enemies. Brunson uses carefully crafted wide pump fakes and body flails to tempt defenders into thoughtless fouls. like this:
On the year, Brunson averaged 6.5 free throw attempts per 75 possessions, which ranks in the 94th percentile across the NBA ( dunk & three). If he can consistently hit the free throw line, he can make up for his below-average rim frequency (36th percentile among point guards) and accuracy (42nd percentile).
Another subtle skill in his arsenal is his ability to maintain his dribble while looking across the court. This became increasingly valuable as his reputation as an offensive player grew, causing opponents to throw even more double teams in his direction.
Brunson’s size makes it difficult to see over these doubles (more on this later). However, he can dribble long enough to keep second defenders glued to him long enough to properly assess pieces on the battlefield.
(Side note: Doubling and interrupting the dribble allows the second defender to rotate back into the first assignment without having to pay the power play tax that the defense originally conceded on the decision to double. (The more you dribble, the more time the second defender sticks to you.)
And unlike many previous ball-dominant floor generals, Brunson has the ability to provide value off the ball as a spacer. Over the last three years, Brunson has made 44% of his wide-open threes (he’s in the 88th percentile according to his basketball database).
None of the skills I’ve outlined so far are new to Brunson this year (though some are more refined). Still, his scoring efficiency remained the same, as he improved from an average of 25.4 points per 75 points (94th percentile) to 28.3 points per 75 points (98th percentile). How about that?
Branson is known for having an unparalleled work ethic. After all, at that scale, you can’t get much better without some effort on the ground.
Regardless, Brunson went into last offseason needing to increase his 3-point shooting volume to make up for his subpar rim numbers. Branson made the necessary effort to stay true to form, did exactly that. After hitting just 5.0 of 75 (50th percentile) in 2022-23, he is averaging a career-high 6.7 of 75 threes (72nd percentile) this year.
Most of this increase was in pull-up 3-point shooting, which increased from 1.8 pull-ups per 36 minutes (69th percentile) to 2.5 pull-ups per 36 minutes (80th percentile). This increase in his 3-point volume (while maintaining 3-point efficiency) allowed Brunson to increase his scoring output without reducing his overall scoring efficiency.
In addition to his rim pressure, Brunson isn’t the perfect facilitator. Even with his dribbling skills, Brunson’s height limits some of the pass reads he can perform (first clip in montage below). He also tends to focus on scoring drives, which may lead him to choose more difficult shots than passes that exploit teammates (second clip). Of the 196 players who averaged at least three drives per game and played in at least 20 games this year, Brunson’s drive-pass percentage (36.4%) is only in the 42nd percentile.
He’s not an elite passer, but he’s still good enough to be one of the best offensive players on the planet. Even though the Knicks aren’t rich in offensive talent, Brunson’s offensive rating is in the 94th percentile when he’s on the floor. And Brunson himself ranks 10th in the entire NBA in offensive estimated plus/minus (OFF EPM).
Jalen Brunson Scouting Report: Defense
If the first few mentions don’t ring a bell, Brunson is a small guy (6’2) in this game. support the giants. This obviously affects his defense. Watch Brunson’s sound defense be rendered meaningless by Kris Dunn’s superior size and strength. And Dan isn’t even that big of a guy!
But Branson doesn’t mind the biological disadvantages. Brunson is like a professional boxer, and that’s not just because of the way he hand tapes. He’s a fierce warrior, and he’s willing to take on bigger defenders in the paint, like he’s the second coming of Kyle Lowry. Look at how hard he tries to stop Dillon from mismatching Brooks with his post-ups (he’s one of the most effective types of post-ups).
The big problem with Branson’s disease player prototype (Miniature guards who charge offensively) are often a moving target for defenses in the playoffs. Last season, Brunson fulfilled that prophecy, finishing in the 6th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM).
He currently ranks near league average in this metric (48th percentile). And a lot of that is due to doubling down on his biggest defensive strength: assault. Brunson, who forced 27 charges in 68 games last year, already has 24 charges in 51 games this year (tied for the league lead with rookie Brandin Podzemski). For those wondering, if he continues at his current pace, he will have 36 charges by the end of the regular season.
(Addendum #2: Words from Head Coach Tom Thibodeau legendary trends Riding his starters hard (Brunson is in the 98th percentile in minutes per game this year) has sometimes led to the southpaw’s defensive efforts failing. )
Overall, Brunson remains a below-average defender. However, his physicality and craftiness make him a better defender than other players (Damian Lillard, Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton).
conclusion
The recipe for a world-class offense with a below-average overall defense (average for his position) could lead to big strides in 2023-2024.
Brunson ranks 14th overall in the NBA in EPM (probably the best one-number metric published on the market). Brunson is ranked 18th in BPM by Basketball Reference. And The Ringer, Top 100 rankinghe is the 15th best player in basketball.
His standing in these databases pretty accurately sums up Brunson’s standing in the league’s hierarchy. Brunson is currently an All-Star/Fringe All-NBA standout. Personally, I can only name 17-18 NBA players who are clearly better than Brunson at this point.
All things considered, there are probably fewer than 25 people in the world who are better than Brunson. He really seems worthy of an All-Star nomination.
Statistics in this article were updated as of Wednesday afternoon.
